Renewable Energy and Jobs Notes

Meeting with Bob

2008-05-19T12:10:00.001-07:00

1. List/desc of renewable energy tax credits (federal and state) and funds for R&D (federal and state)
2. Total energy use per unit GDP for OECD country, plus breakdown by energy source
3. Description of German retrofit program
4. Description of U.S. cap and trade program for SO2
5. How will permit auction work for L-W and what is expected revenue?

23 April 2008

2008-04-23T08:23:00.000-07:00

REORDERING

Look through "best practice" publications (ACEEE, Governors, others?) to identify where our states excel.
Use DSIRE to describe other RE & EE regulations and incentives.
Look for anecdotal RE information: Sterzinger's bits on NV and MI, Greener Pathways report on PA wind manufacturing, OH governor piece on energy and jobs?
Make spreadsheet of information that will be same for every state: energy mix, energy prices, projected energy use, imports/exports, how many major electric utilities, resource potential for RE, potential for RE manufacturing jobs, # cooling/heating degree days,
Choose 2-3 most important environmental issues/Use ranking of environmental quality by states.
Compile State of the State reports; Read SoS reports and identify 2-3 important points.

22 April 2008

2008-04-22T07:37:00.000-07:00

Which states are the SE region? Heidi gave me a list; Census region 06 "east south central" is AL, KY, MS, TN. Census region 05 "south atlantic" is DE,FL,GA,MD,NC,SC,VA,WV.

TODAY

Made template for Nevada and figured out most data sources.
Spent too long trying to figure out how to use paltry state-level data on building energy use.
12 hours so far this week.

TOMORROW

Compile State of the State reports
Make spreadsheet of information that will be same for every state: energy mix, energy prices, projected energy use, imports/exports, how many major electric utilities, resource potential for RE, potential for RE manufacturing jobs, # cooling/heating degree days,
Read SoS reports and identify 2-3 important points.
Choose 2-3 most important environmental issues/Use ranking of environmental quality by states.
Look for anecdotal RE information: Sterzinger's bits on NV and MI, Greener Pathways report on PA wind manufacturing, OH governor piece on energy and jobs?
Look through "best practice" publications (ACEEE, Governors, others?) to identify where our states excel.
Use DSIRE to describe other RE & EE regulations and incentives.

21 April 2008

2008-04-21T13:03:00.001-07:00

TODAY
Read Public Investment memo - wrote email to James, didn't send
Began taking notes on RE&EE Incentives and current environmental issues in NV
Took step back and decided to outline what KIND of information I would find for each state
Spent some time looking at DOE WAP site and the 2006 evaluation of NV low-income energy assistance and weatherization program.

TOMORROW
Decide on exact categories of information I'll present in each area and begin compiling information.

15 April 2008

2008-04-15T17:35:00.000-07:00

TODAY
Stayed home, began writing report on fossil fuel subsidies.
Worked 13 hours so far this week.

TOMORROW
Finish report on subsidies. Finish section on FOE report. Include info on Koplow's comparisons. Other reports - maybe government? Yes! Look first at the new (April 2008) EIA report. According to it, renewables currently get almost as much in subsidies as oil, natural gas, and coal combined!

CAP Outline

2008-04-14T16:44:00.000-07:00

Sections I may be responsible for in bold

1. “Green Growth” and “Green-Collar Jobs”
􀂄 Review various definitions
􀂄 Our main point: we want policies to promote a clean environment and expand
employment.
o Defining individual jobs, or job classifications as “green collar” doesn’t
seem particularly helpful; and may well be a distraction.

2. How Clean Energy/Green Growth Policies Can Promote Employment Expansion
􀂄 Analytically speaking, only two main possibilities:
o Import substitution (substituting domestic energy for foreign oil)
o Relatively greater labor intensity for clean energy/energy efficiency as
opposed to energy from fossil fuels
􀂃 Role of capital projects versus ongoing operations and
maintenance
• Need a careful breakdown of types of jobs created and
numbers of jobs
• Need to discuss active labor market policies for training
and job placement
􀂃 Lower degree of import leakages
􀂄 In addition to these two main factors, two additional sources of increased
employment through clean energy agenda
o General public investments that promote efficiency
􀂃 Greater employment/dollar of state expenditure
o Stronger employment multiplier

3. Strategies to promote Green Growth
􀂄 Again, only two basic possibilities:
o Lower the private costs of renewable energy/energy efficiency
o Raise the cost of fossil fuels
o Go through discussion on each
o Need to emphasize short-run and long-run considerations
􀂃 Foundation for short-run stimulus program
􀂄 Clean energy strategies
o Conservation
􀂃 Discuss programs in U.S., cities, other countries (e.g. Germany)
􀂃 Centrality of increasing efficiency in built environment
• Technologies are known, highly adaptable, easily
dispersed, low import content
o Renewable energy
􀂃 Measures for promoting R&D, installation
• Again, show state of activity, bring in examples
􀂄 Raising costs of fossil fuels
o Can achieve this through reducing subsidies for fossil fuels, carbon tax, or
cap-and-trade variation
o Go through evidence on price elasticities
􀂃 Asymmetry between price elasticity of consumer demand for fossil
fuels versus elasticity of GDP in response to fossil fuel price
change
• Consumer demand falls more in response to price increase
than GDP; reason is conservation
• Therefore, raising carbon prices (modestly) consistent with
program focused on conservation
o EPA growth estimates from Computable General Equilibrium model
􀂃 Very modest negative growth effects
􀂃 Model assumes full employment; takes no account of “benefits”
o Important issue of political viability as we have discussed at CAP
􀂃 May therefore want to focus first on measures to lower clean
energy costs rather than raising fossil fuels costs

4. Magnitude of Program and Estimating Employment Impacts
􀂄 Need to decide on reasonable size for program
o Roughly equal to current stimulus—about $150 billion?
􀂃 Also size of Iraq war budget for 2007
􀂄 Can develop as second-round short-term “stimulus” as well as long-term
growth program
o Need to break out spending in terms of conservation versus renewables
􀂃 75 percent conservation?
􀂄 Techniques for estimating employment effects
o Employment effects per dollar spent
o Employment effects per share of GDP on energy
o Employment per given supply of BTU energy
􀂃 Not a viable approach
􀂄 Compare employment effects with alternatives
o Status quo
o Current stimulus program
o Military spending?
􀂄 Need to break out jobs as finely as possible
o Construction industry gets big boost
􀂃 Excellent in terms of counteracting current housing market slump
􀂃 Show quality as well as quantity of jobs

5. Details of Program
􀂄 How to finance
􀂄 Examples from other initiatives
o U.S. cities and states
o Other countries

6. Program as Part of Larger Public Investment Initiative
􀂄 Bridges, water control, roads
􀂄 Mass transit
􀂄 Replacing rail lines
􀂄 Evidence on public investment and employment
o Current evidence
o Analogies with other experiences, e.g. interstate highway system

7. State/Regional Breakdowns
􀂄 Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, “Southeast”
􀂄 Adapt national model to regional settings
􀂄 Role of “imports” will differ with state-based models

14 April 2008

2008-04-14T06:55:00.000-07:00

TODAY:
Return to research on fossil fuel subsidies
Look for bill (from Feb 2008?) that would limit some of them
Jim referenced Bingaman and Clinton estimates - find these
Review other reports on the magnitude

FORMAT for REPORT:
Discuss difficulties of estimating the subsidies
List different types of subsidies
Review estimates from 4-6 sources

TOMORROW:
Find other reports that estimate magnitude/type of subsidies. Doesn't seem to be much recent stuff out there. Review Koplow (2006) and UCS (from 1995, I think). Try google scholar, other search engines.

11 Apr 2008

2008-04-11T12:47:00.000-07:00

Heidi's presentation on the GA conference on Green Growth & Green Jobs:
1. What are green jobs? Do we need to define them? Some worry that the definition will be too narrow and the "results" from studies showing the potential for green job growth will show that it is small. MA asked whether jobs would be coded for product and process so the workplace environment, for example, is good as well as the product produced. JB said we need to think about the appropriate denominator. Jobs per...$, kWh, MtCO2e? MA pointed out that more labor is a cost in cost benefit analysis - why is it better that a program creates more jobs? JB talked about the shadow wage: wage*(1-unemp rate). HT: maybe most effective argument is just that green growth won't hurt the economy. JB: point out that unemployment rate set largely by macro policy, so green policies shift type of employment but not numbers.

2. Raising price of carbon and/or lowering cost of renewables? HGP said that industry reps there thought market shouldn't be interfered with because creates uncertainty. Didn't totally understand why that would be their viewpoint. JB: everyone would be for lowering cost of renewables. Questions is at what price and who wins and who loses. Said most politically tenable solution may be to redirect FF subsidies, but can't figure out wha the magnitude is. Bingaman's office said $20 billion annually. Hillary says $50 billion. JB: very little research on how elasticity of demand (for energy?) varies across income spectrum. There is a study of fuel use and auto ownership in the UK. Possible that elasticity is higher for poorer people, and may make carbon pricing less regressive, but should think about how cutting back affects quality of life. HGP: Need to think about what sort of border adjustments necessary to make carbon taxes politically feasible. JB: Illegal under PPM rules of WTO. Probably wouldn't affect competitiveness much. Hasn't seemed to in EU. [HAS anyone researched this?]

3. Nuclear/CCS
Long discussion of nuclear, but didn't write much on this. JB: Need to stop all new production and direct lots of money into figuring out how to deal with waste. If that question can be answered, then can start generating again. Also mentioned the value of resilience (gained, for example, through dist gen) and lack of attention to it among economists. MA: Erin Baker consulted experts in area of CCS and they implied that it will be relatively cheap to make it operable. [WANT to get her notes.]

4. Public Role
Consensus that we need massive energy efficiency project. [HAS demand for energy gone up linearly with GDP?] Discussed need for regulation - people don't pick up on market signals, short-sighted. MA: lots of topics in applying behavioral economics to environmental decisionmaking - behavioral case for regulations]. JB: Not just market-based vs. regulation vs. public investment. Need all three. [DISSERTATION topic: what is appropriate role for each?]

Climate Change bills pending consideration by Senate EPW committee

2008-04-09T06:24:00.000-07:00

S. 280: Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007 (Introduced 2007 Jan 12. Lieberman-McCain. Obama and Clinton both co-sponsors)
S. 309: Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (Introduced 2007 Jan 16. Sanders. Only Democrats cosponsoring). GHG levels in 2050 80% below 1990 levels. Endorsed by a bunch of environmental groups.
S. 1168: Clean Air/Climate Change Act of 2007 (Introduced 2007 Apr 19. Alexander and Lieberman) . 2011-2014, 2.3 bil MtCO2e; 2015-19, 2.1 bil; 2020-24, 1.8 bil, 2025 and after, 1.5 bil.
S. 1766: Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 (Introduced 2007 Jul 11. Bingaman-Specter.)
S. 2191: America's Climate Security Act of 2007 (Introduced 2007 Oct 18. Lieberman-Warner.)

8 April 2008

2008-04-08T10:58:00.000-07:00

YESTERDAY and TODAY:

Thorough reading of Pinderhughes' GCJ report (ok) and Greener Pathways report (great). See Zotero notes.
Read reports on two more economic models of S.2191 - Banks (Clean Air Task Force) and Murray and Ross (Duke U). Neither explicit about jobs - see notes in Zotero.

WANT TO READ:

Recent "green job" heading posts on Grist
US DOE "Annual Report on US Wind Power Installation, Cost, and Performance Trends"
REPP reports on potential for domestic manufacturing of wind turbine components, apparently available at bluegreenalliance.org
JEDI model used for wind sector (at EERE site listed in Pathways report)

2 April 2008

2008-04-02T16:49:00.000-07:00

AFTERNOON
Organized folders
Read Nelson, Ackerman, et al. critique of the CRA model of S.2191. Great!
Began reading/taking notes on And now a word from their sponsors...

TOMORROW
Finish last item

2 April 2008

2008-04-02T07:53:00.001-07:00

THIS MORNING
Sent Bob draft of EPA analysis of S.2191 memo

NEXT
Proofread memo and clean up
Clean up folders/make folder with everything sent to Bob
Read other reports on S.2191 models and web critiques
Analysis of fossil fuel subsidies??

Dissertation Idea

2008-03-19T16:39:00.000-07:00

Assess capacity of U.S. to meet demand for environmental protection services/clean energy
- Green businesses
- Workers
- Training programs

Assess potential for outsourcing elements of the "green economy"
- e.g., Wind developments

Compare to other countries
- Case study of Spain - how have they retained jobs, prepared workers

13 Mar 2008

2008-03-13T12:39:00.000-07:00

TODAY

Finished"criticisms" memo and sent to Bob
Read new Apollo GCJ report and took notes - good definition of GCJ program and identification of necessary components
Looked through Renewable Energy World news (formerly Renewable Energy Access)
Read new Nation article on Green Collar Jobs - "Labor's War on Global Warming"

TOMORROW

Already worked 20 hours this week, but for next time:
Print all memos, reports, etc. that were sent to Bob and put them in binder
Reread GCJ notes that I sent to Bob and begin report on what I know about Green Collar Jobs
Look up programs in Seattle; RFP requirements in Multnomah County, OR
Read NAM and ACCF Study Highlighting the National and 50-State Economic Impacts of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Change Bill
Download portable Mozilla so I can take Zotero with me

12 March 2008

2008-03-12T12:52:00.000-07:00

TODAY
Condensed list of criticisms and began writing intro

TOMORROW
Finish criticisms; send to Bob
Look over the report that Bob emailed on economic analysis of Lieberman bill
Look over Apollo Report of case studies

11 Mar 2008

2008-03-11T11:02:00.000-07:00

TODAY
Continued to work on criticisms.

TOMORROW
2 hours on criticism finding and 3 hours writing a summary.

THURSDAY
Back to GCJ case study and analysis piece.

10 Mar 2008

2008-03-10T18:48:00.000-07:00

TODAY
Worked from home; continued to add criticisms to list of CAP suggested policies. Going relatively slowly because am reading a bit of background information on the various policies.

TOMORROW
Pick up where I left off on the 1994 decoupling report and keep going.
Remember to add a section with general energy reform criticisms and who makes them - including criticisms of renewable energy and arguments in favor of fossil fuels.
Try to finish this section by Thursday when GCJ case study report comes out.

5 Mar 2008

2008-03-05T09:57:00.000-08:00

TODAY

Finished taking notes on Rosner 2006 report on green building in LA.
Followed up on several of the programs I had added to the source list (highlighed these in yellow) and added them to the bottom of the case study list.
Met with Bob
1. Asked me to write up what I sent him regarding green jobs initiatives. I said it would make sense to wait until the Apollo Alliance report of case studies comes out next Thursday, 3/13.
2. Report should discuss 1) different definition of green collar jobs; 2) what is a "green collar jobs" program; 3) critical analysis of programs that are out there (most new, small size); 4) discussion of what we need
3. Possibly follow up on 3 or 4 examples - successful and unsuccessful - to get a better idea of what is really going on in these programs.
4. Until 3/13, work on gather criticisms of green initiatives (a la criticism of Kansas governors proposal.) Who are the critics? What are their arguments? What research/methods do they use to support these arguments?

TOMORROW

Pick up where I left off in the "criticisms" collection - who is on what side in the Kansas coal-powered plant debate. What are arguments and who is making them?

Grist: How do we define the green-job economy?

2008-03-05T08:27:00.000-08:00

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/2/19/155825/434
by Kevin Doyle, resident of Green Economy, a Boston-based training, consulting, and research firm with services for the institutions and individuals building a more sustainable world

Review of recent green job studies:
In January, Green Biz.com released State of Green Business 2008
What's the state of "green job creation" in 2008? It's mentioned under the heading "Indicators We Wish We Had" with the following rueful comment: "How many jobs are being created through all of the kinds of activities measured in this report? No one knows."

Links to some of the green jobs reports that are making the rounds can be found at the end of this post, but one thing is common to almost all of them. They agree that we need more detailed local and regional information from employers in six specific industries: green building, energy efficiency, solar energy, wind power, biofuels, and brownfields redevelopment.

The December issue of the Environmental Business Journal provides the 2006 revenue and projected annual growth (2007-2010) numbers for the following sectors:

Wastewater Treatment -- $37.49 billion -- 4.6 percent
Solid Waste Management -- $50.60 billion -- 4.2 percent
Remediation/Industrial Service -- $11.55 billion -- 4.4 percent
Consulting and Engineering -- $23.98 billion -- 5.2 percent
Water Equipment/Chemicals -- $26.11 billion -- 5.6 percent
Water Utilities -- $36.61 billion -- 4.4 percent
Resource Recovery -- $24.13 billion -- 15.0 percent
Hazardous Waste Management -- $ 8.99 billion -- 2.2 percent

The EBJ numbers are supported by last year's review of the top 200 environmental firms in Engineering News Record. ENR's analysis showed a 12.5 percent gain for the top 200 over the previous year, pushing total revenues for the big guys to $42.2 billion.

In a confirmation of our hopes for job creation in the clean energy and green building sector, EBJ reported that its definition of that industry grew a whopping 11.8 percent in 2006 to total revenues of $24.90 billion, with expected growth at 11.4 percent annually. Meanwhile, ENR has begun tracking the top "green contractors" in the nation.

Have read 5 of 6 reports on the resource list:
#6: Massachusetts Clean Energy Industry Census (PDF) from the Massachusetts Technology Collaborative (2007).

To Read

2008-03-05T08:26:00.000-08:00

Grist article on Climate policy, auctions, and economic justice
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/3/3/03457/29578

4 Mar 2008

2008-03-04T11:10:00.000-08:00

TODAY
Took notes on UCLA policy brief on green economic development and LA Green Building sector paper.
Wrote memo to Bob and sent along the notes I have so far.

TOMORROW
Finish notes on UCLA master's research on green building in LA
Follow up on promising leads in "sources" document - CA Solar Initiative, Seattle Green jobs, etc.
Begin looking at oil company subsidies

Rosner 2006 Jobs in LA Green Building

2008-03-04T08:12:00.000-08:00

http://www.greenforall.org/resources/la-apollo-rosner.pdf

Report comes from a UCLA Urban Planning Master Client Project
Asks what types of jobs are arising in the green building industry and whether any are new. Also, how green building jobs can benefit low-income communities of color.
Case studies of 3 green buildings + interviews of green building industry reps.
Interesting results:
1. Public policy is the driving force behind green building and stimulating local economic development in the green building sector. Public policy support for green building is motivated by energy conservation, cost savings, and environmental concerns.
2. A green building knowledge gap exists between the designers and architects who design the project and the contractors and sub-contractors who construct the project.
3. New job opportunities in the green building industry include: LEED certifiers, commissioners and auditors; energy auditors; recyclers; and landscapers.
4. Green building material manufacturing represents the most promising industry to stimulate local economic development across Los Angeles.
5. The most effective way to connect people from low-income communities of color with green building jobs is through union apprenticeship and worker center training programs.
Reviews research on green energy and job creation - mostly just refers to Kammen article. Says there are jobs to be had and will depend on policy.
p.8 California also passed a Million Solar Roofs initiative in 2006, committing $3.2 billion in incentive funds to drive consumers toward solar power over the next 11 years. The Initiative will be implemented in 2007.
10 Mentions the Los Angeles Manufacturing Credit phased out in 2005 that gave an additional $1.50/watt rebate to PV systems installed and manufactured in LA...The report [2004 - by LA dept of water and power - on solar incentive program] notes that LADWP trained over 300 workers in PV installation; and employs about 1000 people who spend some portion of their time in PV installation.
13-14 Two paragraphs illustrating the impact of policy: The IBEW (electrician’s union) training center recently completed a solar energy power project illustrating policy’s powerful impact. An IBEW training center representative explained how policy impacted the center’s decision to invest in solar power. Interest existed to create a solar training center for the union’s apprentices. However, the real push came from the future energy cost savings. The PV system cost approximately three million dollars, of which half was financed by Edison subsidies. The representative emphasized that Edison receives all of its incentive funding from the State. Therefore, finance incentives on the state level represent the true driving force behind IBEW decision to install a PV system. The system is expected to pay for itself in four years through its 800 megawatt cost savings per year. This pay off period is quicker than first anticipated due to higher performance panels being introduced to the market.
The IBEW representative also explained that Title 24 significantly impacted energy conservation in California. Adopted in 1978, Title 24 acted as a response to reduce California’s energy consumption by setting building standards for electrical systems. The representative recalled that in 1978 the lighting trades protested the ordinance and feared that they would not be able to meet required standards. However, the lighting trades ended up successfully responding with innovations in technology. Subsequently, California’s Title 24 building standards serves as a model for energy conservation in other states.15
LADWP put solar incentive program on hold (in 2005?), and report says that several small firms went out of business as a result.
16 Green building does not require different skill jobs so much as experience and retraining in green building construction for existing positions.
17 Two paragraphs on difficulties in green building when experience is lacking: The contractor on the job expressed that the [Lakeview Terrance Branch] library was his first and last LEED project he bid for. As LEED was just being introduced in Los Angeles at the time of construction, the contractor had no prior experience in LEED. When the Los Angeles Department of Public Works selects a contractor from a bid process, the City’s only criterion is to choose the lowest bidder. Experience in green building is not a factor.
The contractor explained that the biggest challenge in the project was obtaining the green building materials. The contractor went through seven different sub-contractors due to inexperience and inadequate knowledge about green building materials and where to seek out fitting materials to match the project’s specifications. The contractor noted that not enough information on LEED and its requirements were offered during the bidding process. Contractors bid for the project without comprehending the full extent of work that LEED would require. The contractor explained that the biggest project issue was a lack of knowledge base on green building.
19 Recommends establishing a Green Building Resource Center to bring together information currently spread throughout a number of departments. Santa Monica and Chicago both have them.
20 Describes new jobs created by green building: LEED professionals (exam certification), energy auditors, green landscaping, building waste recycling. Recommends standards and certifications for these positions.
24 PV Jobs, a non-profit organization providing job placement opportunities for disadvantaged youth and adults, utilizes worker center training and union apprenticeship programs to connect their applicants with jobs.
25 PV Jobs works with numerous community organizations and over 50 worker centers throughout Los Angeles to integrate potential employees with union trades working on one of the nine LACCD [LA Community College District LEED certified] campus construction projects. These organizations are responsible for marketing the PV Jobs program and are the first stop for interested applicants. Union trade jobs include: painters, carpenters, floor installers, laborers, plumbers, concrete masons, sheet metal workers, electricians, and tile setters. To qualify for PV Jobs, an applicant must show one of the following employment barriers: income below 50 percent of median; homeless; welfare recipient; unemployed; single parent; and past justice system involvement.
The first step for an interested applicant is to attend a brief orientation, proving her/his commitment. Next, the applicant is placed in the program tract. The program tract provides applicants with training and connects them with a construction trades union. Through a union position, the applicant is guaranteed health benefits and prevailing wages. PV Jobs commits 3000 working hours to each employer. This means that PV Jobs conducts regular follow-ups to ensure that constituents are truly placed at paying jobs. The union tract often moves slowly, so PV Jobs frequently places people before they are accepted in a union. At these times they are not guaranteed prevailing jobs, and the construction jobs may not even be related to the College District. Contractors may even benefit from this program. PV Job candidates are often eligible for the Work Opportunity Tax that gives employers a tax credit of up to $250, on average, per employee.
The biggest obstacle in the process, as expressed by two PV Jobs representatives, is placing dedicated and committed applicants with the available jobs. Construction jobs are labor intensive and team oriented. The PV Jobs program tract provides job orientation and training. However, applicants may not have the right mind set for such jobs. They need to realize that they are members of a working crew. It is not excusable if a person does not show up for work. Second, many applicants lack the basic math and English skills to enter the higher skill unions, such as electricians and plumbers. A representative from the IBEW Local 11 training center in Los Angeles echoed this same challenge. The most serious obstacle facing applicants for IBEW apprenticeship programs is the lack of basic math and English skills.
26 National IBEW partnered with Sharp, a PV manufacturer, and developed a Sharp PV installation certificate process for union members
27 Unions: The PV Jobs representative, who works closely with unions and their training centers, noted that the carpenters union has an extensive training program that includes green building principles. The laborers union may feature green building elements in its construction simulation work station site. Other construction trades to consider working with for a Green Jobs Campaign are the pipetrades, finishers, and plumbers.

UCLA 2006 Economic Development Potential of the Green Sector

2008-03-04T06:33:00.000-08:00

http://www.greenforall.org/resources/ucla-policy-brief.pdf

Policy Brief written by Paul M. Ong (professor of urban planning and social welfare) and Rita Varisa Patraporn (graduate student?) of The Ralph and Goldy Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies. Has a more academic presentation and writing style than other reports.
Heavy emphasis on competition and "first mover advantage" between different cities/regions of the US and between the US and abroad. e.g., "Although the odds of winning the inter-regional competition to grow the Green sector are unknown, taking the risk to implement the initiative is worthwhile because of the potential high pay off." (p.1)
Acknowledge goal of managing growth in way that benefits disadvantaged populations.
Recommendations aren't anything new:
1. Adoption of policies and programs by public agencies to promote economic development by “piggy backing” on current and projected local and regional induced demand for Green products and services. This enables the region to take advantage of locally induced demand.
2. Develop infrastructure and incentives for public and private investment to overcome the barriers to financing a Green sector.
3. Develop a “town-gown” network to promote the production, diffusion and adaptation of knowledge to ensure that a region has an edge in innovation.
4. Eliminate cumbersome city rules and regulations that hinder development of a Green sector; establish operating procedures that facilitate the expansion of Green firms; and promote the development of a Green industrial service park.
5. Match training to labor needs of the Green sector through the utilization of local community colleges and the Workforce Investment Act.
6. Maintain accountability by developing timely performance measurements and monitoring strategy, including outcomes for workers, firms and neighborhoods.
7. Establish an office to coordinate the proposed initiative and appoint a Green expert who is knowledgeable about environmental issues and economic development.
5 Rodino and Associates published report in 2002 on most active regions in environmental technology (LA, Chicago, Philadelphia, NY, Boston)
7 Emphasis on lower costs through economies of scale and agglomeration (clustering of related businesses in geographic space)
Authors say they do not know the optimal size of the sector or the role of agglomeration, but they also do not define the "green sector"
9 Emphasis on assessing region's strengths and weaknesses, including current environmental regulations (as demand driver), strengths of existing firms and research institutions, capital markets, governance structure, skills mismatch,...
12 Importance of linking environmental policies to local economic development to meet new demand for services and goods (e.g., need trained workers for water and energy conservation, green building, etc).
14 Regarding job training: A systematic and consistent forum between community colleges, Workforce
Investment Boards and firms needs to exist. Such a discussion would benefit the growth of the Green sector, as firms are able to fulfill their labor needs with an appropriately skilled and trained work force. This ensures a region’s lead as a place where a firm’s labor needs can be met uniquely and unlike anywhere else in the country. For example, Los Angeles Trade Technical College links its students with firms that construct the campus’ Green buildings. The College’s architecture program trains and places College students into jobs specifically for constructing campus Green buildings.20 In addition, the California State Employment Development Department currently has a solar training program. Simultaneously, there are proposals in the California state legislature (AB2617 Saldana) to support funding for this solar energy-training program.21 (p.14)
Authors are thinking about LA, but recommendations and need to coordinate actions apply to everyone. Focus is definitely on economic development (become a winner instead of a loser) instead of environmental protection (in which a more collaborative approach would be called for). Mention the role of government as being simply a coordinator, but it is clear that government intervention needed in several areas to bring together all the components.

Overview of Federal Workforce Development Policies

2008-03-03T13:48:00.000-08:00

http://www.greenforall.org/resources/workforce-alliance.pdf

Great overview of 16 different federal programs that allocate funding to training activities, spread over a number of departments./
11 When Congress authorized WIA, it stipulated that these different types of service should be provided to clients in a particular sequence, with the expectation that program participants could be deemed eligible for the next, higher-cost form of service only if they had failed to secure employment after receiving the lower-cost services. This approach has dramatically decreased the amount of training provided under WIA relative to previous federal programs.
14 How training works under WIA: WIA requires that training services be provided primarily
through vouchers, known as Individual Training Accounts (ITAs), rather than through the contract method used under JTPA to purchase services from training providers. WIA participants needing training are supposed to receive an ITA, which they can use to purchase services from any organization on their local WIB’s “Eligible Training Provider” (ETP) list.
18 In 2004, 48.5 percent of adult WIA exiters received training, compared to 76.3 percent of adults who participated in training during the last year of JTPA (PY99).
Did not read whole document, but may be useful in talking about poor transitional assistance

Worldwatch report for UNEP - Green Jobs - 2007

2008-03-03T09:34:00.000-08:00

Worldwatch. 2007. Green Jobs: Toward Sustainable Work in a Low-Carbon World (preliminary report). Prepared for the UNEP, ILO, ITUC Green Jobs Initiative. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Program. www.unep.org/civil_society/Publications/index.asp

Final report is due out in April 2008. Skimmed this report - did not read many sections.
Thorough (133pp.) synthesis of the info and studies out there on employment effects of RE, energy efficient building, transport, agriculture. Also details environmental problems that create need for green employment and potential barriers. Acknowledges that much useful data does not exist. Lots of stats; 44 pp. of citations.
Executive summary of this report is slightly more detailed version of the UNEP Background Paper on Green Jobs cited above
Notes underdevelopment of green jobs in developed world, with exceptions of China and Brazil (ethanol production?)
“As the German government has done, governments should also commission in-depth modeling and econometric efforts to analyze not just direct green jobs but also those that are related in a more indirect manner” (p.xiii)
Worldwide employment estimates for recycling (1.5 million)
Not all “green” jobs are automatically good for workers – electronics recycling (xiv), bad conditions in biofuel growing/production and potential to push people off land (xv) Carbon capture and sequestration is capital intensive; jobs/$million expected to be low (xvi-xvii) “
As the Stern Review notes, real levels of R&D in low-carbon technologies have actually fallen sharply in recent decades” (xxvii)
Problems with clean development mechanism (CDM) include skewed allocation of development projects (toward China, away from Lat Am and Africa); costs of certification around 14-22% of value of selling carbon credits from project; piecemeal approach of companies looking for cheap carbon credits (p.xxix)
Skilled green jobs: “At the cutting edge of technology development for wind turbine or solar PV design, for instance, specialization has progressed to the point where universities need to consider offering entirely new study fields and majors” (p.xxx)
Not all green jobs easy to recognize or count: “For instance, a particular piece of specialty steel may be used to manufacture a wind turbine tower without the steel company employees necessarily being aware of that fact” (p.8)
Research on “rebound effect” – extent to which improved efficiency results in increased use (e.g., in cars, AC use, etc.) (p.9)
Discusses need to move business focus from increasing labor productivity to increasing energy and materials productivity (p.12-13)
Potential contradiction between renewables as a global source of jobs and renewables as part of national competitive economic strategies – e.g., desire to maintain export market stands in the way of technology transfer (p.60)

3 Mar 2008

2008-03-03T06:27:00.000-08:00

TODAY

Continued compiling resources/taking notes on GCJs. Didn't get through a whole lot - Pinderhughes, UNEP/Worldwatch, ASES, CIPHER/SCOPE.
Skimmed the Workforce Alliance report on federal workforce development programs/funding. Good report! Not sure if it will be useful.
Am getting away a bit from the "case study" task - the UNEP and ASES reports are about more macro-level job creation - numbers, rather than specific green collar job case studies.
Still, the idea of case studies of GCJs is a bit ambiguous. Includes descriptions of jobs in green industries? Probably want case studies of Green Collar Job programs, which are likely to be training programs to put disadvantaged individuals into "green" industry jobs. Examples of these are few and will probably be covered in upcoming Apollo Alliance report. Do more in depth study of them? Or do "green collar jobs" case studies mean something different?

TOMORROW

Take notes on the UCLA policy brief (p.16) - remember to include CA state solar training program (still exists?)
Other WIA training programs that focus on green jobs?
Write up memo for Bob - maybe a synthesis of what I know plus companion documents with the case study blurbs and annotated bibliography.

House bill - increase taxes for big oil and renew PTCs

2008-03-03T06:21:00.000-08:00

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/27/AR2008022702635.html?hpid=topnews

would rescind a tax break for the five biggest oil companies and use the revenue to boost incentives for wind and solar energy and energy efficiency
Heads to senate: "fourth time in the past year that Democrats have tried to get the package adopted."
Supporters of the measure noted that rescinded tax breaks would amount to less than 2 percent of the profits of the five biggest oil companies. Even if the companies were to pass along that entire cost to gasoline consumers, it would amount to about a penny a gallon.
Republicans mostly supported the bill's renewable energy provisions, worth about $8 billion.
But at the heart of the floor debate was a provision to exclude oil and gas companies from a tax break given to U.S. manufacturers in 2004. Two years earlier, Congress had given a subsidy to manufacturers -- not including the oil industry. When the World Trade Organization ruled that the subsidy was a violation of trade accords, Congress instead came up with a provision that effectively lowered the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 32 percent over a number of years. In addition to the traditional manufacturers that would have received the earlier subsidy, the new tax break was extended to Hollywood studios, architectural and engineering firms, and oil and gas companies.
RENEWABLES PROVISIONs
To spur renewable energy, the bill would extend the production tax credit, now 2 cents a kilowatt hour, for wind for three years; after 2009, tax credits would not be able to exceed 35 percent of the value of a wind project.
The 30 percent investment tax credit for solar projects would be extended eight years for commercial customers and six years for residential customers. The current maximum credit for homeowners would be doubled to $4,000.
The legislation would also channel $2 billion into clean renewable energy bonds, which would help finance renewable energy investments by the country's politically powerful rural electric cooperatives. The bill would also expand tax credits for the installation of pumps for motor fuel with 85 percent ethanol and for purchases of plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Dissertation Idea

2008-02-29T06:56:00.000-08:00

Use GIS maps to assess job potential from various energy/environmental projects - RE installation, public transit creation, energy efficiency, etc.

Tom's Harvard magazine had an article about PHEVs, but the environmental studies professor who wrote it also was studying wind potential across the US and there was a map of wind resources by state there.

Dissertation Idea

2008-02-29T06:55:00.000-08:00

Create metric for analyzing success of energy policy measures on several fronts:
1. Environmental protection
2. Energy security
3. Job provision
4. Cost?
Maybe more of a polisci topic?

28 Feb 2008

2008-02-28T15:59:00.000-08:00

TODAY
Finished Urban Agenda GCJs report. Went through it very slowly. :(

TOMORROW
Organize a memo and write synthesis of what I have learned so far. Think about section headings for types of "initiatives", like:
1a. Subsidized training programs
1b. Non-subsidized training programs
2a. Environmental initiatives, with job awareness
2b. Environmental initiatives, without job awareness
3. Policies/government projects/advisory councils
4. Service programs

Include discussion of existence of green collar jobs whenever an environmental initiative is carried out, even if jobs aren't explicit purpose. What does including job requirements in policy do? What kind of requirements should be included (e.g., training programs, pay/benefit requirements, type of individual recruited, union, etc.)? Need for demand for workers and supply of workers to match.

Questions to ask about environmental policies:
Will U.S. jobs be created, and if so, how many?
What kinds of jobs will be created (type, pay/benefits, union, education/experience necessary)?
Who will get the jobs?

Discuss who is studying green jobs and what kinds of reports are available.

27 Feb 2008

2008-02-27T12:38:00.000-08:00

TODAY
Finished going through the case study section on the Green for All website. Ended up with 13 pages of their blurbs + notes on the various projects.
Began reading and taking notes on the Urban Agenda report on Energy Efficiency and GCJs in NYC.

TOMORROW
Synthesize what I learned so far and draft a memo for Bob that gives overview of
1. What is out there, as far as Green Collar job programs and research
2. Issues - what is the difference between an environmental initiative and a green collar job initiatve

Look into the Seattle green collar jobs site - referenced on the former Northwest Environment Watch website.

Clean up/put together memo on appearances of phrase Green Collar Jobs

Urban Agenda - Growing Green Collar Jobs: Energy Efficiency

2008-02-27T11:40:00.000-08:00

http://www.greenforall.org/resources/ggcjenergyefficiency.pdf
Well-written and well-documented report on the types of jobs created by demand for energy efficiency in NYC. Good blend of description of energy efficiency improvements, descriptions of jobs created, information from and on people/organizaions working in these sectors. Very conscious of need to blend job requirements with energy efficiency legislation.

Focus on NYC
First report in a series
Must ensure that jobs created by PlaNYC are "green collar jobs": "A green collar job is more than simply a job in an environmental field. It also provides a family sustaining wage, safe working conditions, and chances for career advancement" (3)
Two definitions of environmental justice: Environmental justice is the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people, regardless of background or status, in the development, implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies. The environmental justice movement responds to the reality that power plants, landfills and other environmental hazards are often sited in low-income communities and communities of color without their participation in the decision-making process.14 Environmental justice has also come to mean the equitable distribution of the benefits of the green economy: green collar jobs, community reinvestment, and clean technology.15 Organizations like the Ella Baker Center in Oakland, Strategic Concepts in Organizing and Policy Education (SCOPE) in LA, Sustainable South Bronx, the United Puerto Rican Organization of Sunset Park (UPROSE), and Urban Agenda recognize that green collar jobs can help redress past injustice while creating economic opportunity.16
Includes profiles: Miroslav (maintainance supervisor of a green apt building), Buddy (electrician who installs meters and wiring), Meghan (operating engineer), Bill (building superintendent, trainer, and unionmember),
10 The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) projects that its statewide energy efficiency and alternative energy programs will create and sustain, on average, more than 8,600 jobs over a 19-year period.34 Governor Eliot Spitzer, in his April 2007 address launching the 15 x 15 energy efficiency initiative, predicted that this initiative will create 41,000 jobs statewide.35
List of tasks/projects involved in energy upgrades
10-11 Quite detailed description of knowledge needed by energy auditor
11 The creation of standardized job titles and skill requirements is in progress as the auditing field develops. At the moment, NYSERDA is leading the process. NYSERDA has developed a suite of energy efficiency incentive programs for existing buildings, and requires building owners to hire NYSERDAapproved auditors in order to receive incentives under the Multifamily Building Performance Program.
15 An extensive study of municipal building retrofits in Canada, conducted by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, estimated that every $1 million invested in building retrofits creates 20 person-years of employment, mainly in the construction phase.57
17 A lack of projects has slowed the adoption of energy efficiency skills by workforce development programs. The slow development of the energy efficiency workforce, especially in more specialized areas like auditing and energy engineering, has in turn reinforced the slow growth of energy efficiency projects.
Reviews roadblocks to realizing efficiency gains; similar to Joel Rogers COWS paper
18 The median Standard Payback Time (SPT) for the average retrofit is now seven years for institutional facilities, four years for hospitals, and just three years for commercial, industrial, and office buildings.66
35 Statewide, low-income people spend, on average, up to 15 percent of their monthly income on energy. Eighty percent of these expenditures leave low-income communities, going to power companies rather than local businesses.81
36 The New York City Housing Authority administers the City’s public housing developments as well as the Section 8 housing voucher program. NYCHA’s 344 aging developments—some sixty years old—house 412,281 low-income New Yorkers, 5 percent of the City’s total population.89...NYCHA’s utility costs currently account for approximately 20 percent of the operating budget and 37 have increased over 42 percent in the last few years.90 In this context, energy efficiency programs that lower the costs of operating NYCHA housing are especially important.
20,37 - Energy efficiency upgrades in affordable housing stymied by delays in HUD approval for using capital funds
31 Discusses need for maintenence staff to understand and be on board with energy efficiency requirements
24 Meter Service Providers use smart meters, real-time pricing, and sophisticated mapping tools to pinpoint when and how their clients use energy. Create energy management plans. Staff includes meter readers, analysts, billers, accountants, electricians, metering technicians, IT professionals, engineers, and project managers.
25 Companies in the emerging field of strategic energy asset management can help large power consumers tap into government demand-response programs by reducing their reliance on power from the grid at times of peak system usage, and collecting the targeted government subsidies...Jobs in strategic energy asset
management include: • Account managers. Account managers work with client facilities managers to design the energy management program. • Energy analysts. Energy Analysts advise clients on how to tap into market-based opportunities, such as carbon trading or renewable energy credits.
26 Yet, the biggest hurdle to growing green collar jobs in this field may be the skill levels required for some positions. While ConsumerPowerline has beenable to recruit qualified meter installers from the telecommunications industry and utility companies, they have had more difficulty finding staff members who possess the requisite level of engineering, energy, or financ experience to be managers or analysts. Izzi explains, “A lot of these jobs aren’t established within a career services office….[Many people] might not have the track record for doing what we want to do.”
27 Offers recommendations on Green Collar Jobs:

Working with the Workforce Investment Board (WIB) to collect workforce, employer, training, and education data in emerging green industries.

Creating a Green Workforce Career Center to:

• identify and address barriers to industry and
workforce growth;
• develop green collar employment and training
programs, including sector specific training and
advanced training for technical an professional
jobs;
• support green technology R&D and expose
workers to new technology and skills;
• create referral, placement, and job retention services
in partnership with labor and the public and
private sectors; and
• support the creation of green collar career ladders
in growth industries.129

Developing a Green Collar Jobs Corps to help New Yorkers succeed in the City’s expanding green economy. A Green Collar Jobs Corps would:

• identify and recruit New York City’s structurally
unemployed and underemployed;
• develop comprehensive training and education
programs to prepare entry-level, incumbent, and
transitional workers for permanent green collar
employment;
• provide paid green collar work experience at prevailing
wages;
• work with unions and the private sector to develop
placement and referral services for Corps graduates;
• involve New York City’s existing support services,
training, and job placement programs; and
• ensure that Corps participants do not displace existing
workers.

28 Emphasizes that job "supply" creation must be combined with governmental measures to create demand: efficiency mandates, carbon reduction emission mandates, support of green businesses, etc.
30 PlaNYC: If all of the PlaNYC 2030 efficiency initiatives are implemented, the City projects a 14 to 15 percent reduction in energy consumption citywide by 2015.6 Ten percent of the
2007 municipal energy budget—$81.2 million—has been earmarked for municipal building energyefficiency improvements, and the Plan proposes making this annual allotment permanent.7
35 Lack of energy auditors: Richard Cherry, President and CEO of the Community Environmental Center (CEC), sees the lack of qualified auditors and engineers as “the major bottleneck” in growing the energy efficiency market. “No one is coming out of schools trained in energy auditing work,” he explains. Yet, CEC Green Building Specialist Katherine Carredu notes, “There is a great demand for people with computer skills and building mechanical-system knowledge who can perform the energy modeling analyses for new and existing buildings of all types.” Organizations like CEC are competing for the same workers with engineering firms and corporation who can pay larger salaries.78
39 Commissioning and retro-commissioning = assessment, testing, and balancing of a building's systems and controls. If possible, should be person who designed the building's energy systems. If not, engineer.

Green Jobs Act follow up

2008-02-27T11:28:00.000-08:00

Learned from this FAQ sheet - http://www.greenforall.org/resources/faq_greenjobsact07.pdf
that the 2007 Energy bill authorized but did not appropriate $125 million for the Green Jobs training program. Expect this to be done in late 2008, despite the fact that several parts of the program are supposed to begin 6 months after passage (June 2008).
Also describes the 5 parts of the program and how much money is going to each.

26 Feb 2008

2008-02-26T06:43:00.000-08:00

Met with Bob yesterday to talk about work plan and dissertation ideas.

Work plan:
1. Case studies of [job creation through green growth?] Bob mentioned Hermann Scheer's book Solar Economy and said there may be some international examples in there.
2. Types of subsidies given to fossil fuels. Different definition of subsidies.
3. Criticisms of green growth plans. E.g., the governor of Kansas has apparently come under criticism for his. Learn why.

Plan of attack:
Compile sources for #1 (and maybe #2). Begin with Green for All website.

Dissertation discussion:
Mostly comforting - talked about how it's natural to have vague ideas at this point.
Technical stuff should follow ideas, not other way around.
Anything having to do with green collar jobs will be useful and make a contribution.
I mentioned public/private several times - Bob noticed this
Tradeoff between clean energy and jobs? e.g., what if could Reduce GHGs by 90% w/ no jobs vs. reduce GHGs by 70% with lots of job creation.
Program evals of green growth jobs creation plans.

END OF DAY
Spent day going through resources page at Green for All website http://www.greenforall.org/resources/spotlight.html
Followed leads where appropriate; ended with Richmond, CA
Seems like a number of cities have projects in the works, but few have begun projects. Not a whole lot of information available on the programs.
New report to come out in March 2008 (?) with case studies - a guide for cities in creating Green Collar jobs, sponsored by Apollo Alliance, CAP, COWS.
Questions: Many "green collar jobs" are created through projects to reduce energy use/clean up environment - are we looking for projects that explicitly name job creation as an objective? Need to clarify what, exactly, I am looking for.

TOMORROW
Begin with Solar Richmond and continue down list.
Look over the Sources page for other reports/online resources that could be easily found.
Move on to fossil fuel subsidies if break is needed.

Energy efficiency and jobs - Nov 2007 - COWS

2008-02-25T10:42:00.000-08:00

SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY (FOR CLIMATE, JOBS, AND EQUITY) IN
BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY
http://www.cows.org/pdf/rp-energyefficiency.pdf

300 billion sq ft of building space in US
Given huge potential, asks why market for retrofits doesn't work
Barriers to realizing savings from retrofits: poor info, lack of access to capital, split incentives (you pay energy bill but don't own property), limited tenancy, fear of disruption from retrofitting, risk aversion/skepticism, competing alternative uses of capital
How to fix: radically lowered risk and transaction costs for owners/tenants AND reliable capture of savings for external investors
Presents an organizational model to achieve these goals with 6 entities: coordinator (calls it E2 - gov't, public-private, NGO, etc.), utility that puts E2 efficiency services on bill, energy customer willing to pay for retrofit work on bill if repayment lower than energy savings, bank willing to loan money to E2 if can aggregate large number of customers, energy auditor, contractor

Community Jobs in the Green Economy - Apollo Alliance and Urban Habitat - 2007

2008-02-25T08:45:00.000-08:00

http://www.cows.org/pdf/rp-communityjobs_040307.pdf

Profiles of workers in green industries - shows pathways from training programs/apprenticeships through attainment of high-wage jobs

Energy Efficiency Retrofit Jobs
• Auditing energy use in existing buildings
• Manufacturing materials and devices
• Installing efficient lighting and heating systems
• Installing insulation, windows, and appliances

Jobs in Solar PV
• Manufacturing parts for solar PV systems
• Assembling solar panels
• Installing solar panel systems on rooftops
• Maintaining and repairing solar PV systems

Wind Energy Jobs
• Manufacturing parts for wind turbines and towers
• Constructing wind farms
• Operating and maintaining wind turbines

Solar Water Heater Jobs
• Manufacturing parts
• Assembling finished heating systems
• Installing the heaters
• Providing regular maintenance
• Marketing and selling systems to consumers

Geothermal Heat Pump Jobs
• Manufacturing equipment and parts
• Installing the heat pump system

Renewable Fuel Jobs
• Growing and harvesting crops for feedstock
• Collecting waste oils for feedstock
• Manufacturing parts for production facilities
• Constructing production facilities
• Working in the production facility
• Distributing and marketing fuel

Many of the clean energy strategies that we recommend in New Energy for Cities [an Apollo Alliance report] involve some sort of government subsidy or tax break to private companies that produce, buy, sell or distribute energy efficient or clean energy products. Cities can and should attach job quality and job training standards to these types of subsidies to achieve greater public benefit.
Tactics: apprentice utilization requirements [through Project Labor Agreements (PLAs), the agreements between units of government and contractors carrying out publicly funded projects]; local hiring policies; wage policies; give extra renewable energy credits to utilities that have apprenticeship/training program; community benefits agreements
p18 Workforce intermediaries (WIs), also known as “regional training partnerships,” are partnerships among regional economic development stakeholders, including businesses, unions, technical and community colleges, job training programs, community organizations, and local an state workforce development officials. Rather than being one-size-fits-all approaches, they are place-specific partnerships that work to develop and implement pathways for career advancement and family supporting employment for low-skill workers. Successful WIs in Milwaukee, San Antonio, Seattle. No real headway into green economy yet.
p19 Profiles of LA and Richmond, CA.
City of of LA commissioned a study to identify which sectors of the energy economy the city already has in place; and then to determine which of these sectors currently provide high-quality jobs and career ladder opportunities. http://www.economicrt.org/summaries/Green_Tech_synopsis.html . LA Apollo Alliance also identifying public buildings ripe for retrofitting.
City of Richmond, CA enlisted Urban Habitat to help create a green development plan
Good resource list; contains most of the RE&EE/jobs reports that Heidi refers to

Green New Deal - The Corps Network - 7 pager

2008-02-25T08:22:00.000-08:00

http://www.greenforall.org/resources/greennewdeal.pdf

The “Green New Deal” and Service and Conservation Corps
Sally T. Prouty, President and CEO, The Corps Network

The Corps Network, as a member of the Green Jobs and Service Collaborative, calls for a “Green New Deal” [Could not find any other web info on the green jobs and service collaborative]
Explicit goal - to change lives of disconnected young people

The Green Jobs and Service Collaborative’s Green New Deal

We propose $10 billion in new funds over the coming decade for enhanced national environmental service combating climate change, including Americans of all ages but with prime focus on a Clean Energy Corps, where low-income disconnected young men and women in Service and Conservation Corps would improve energy efficiency in their communities while preparing for jobs in the green economy.
We also propose $50 billion for state and local green jobs development during that time, to provide low-income and working-class Americans with the training and other assistance they need to gain jobs in the clean energy economy. At least half this new investment should go toward job preparation, matching, and retention efforts for the unemployed or poor. This investment will pay for itself in direct energy savings, increased worker productivity, reduced social service and health costs, and reduced green house gas emissions.
$140 billion for a revolving loan fund will help to capitalize this work. Supplemented with other public dollars from states and cities, and used throughout to leverage private capital investment, the fund would be paid for through realized energy savings.
Green Jobs and Service Collaborative (institutional affiliations for identification purposes only)—Jeremy Hays (Apollo Alliance), Bracken Hendricks (Center for American Progress), Van Jones (Ella Baker Center for Human Rights/Green for All), Ian Kim (Ella Baker Center), Billy Parish (Energy Action Coalition), Sally Prouty (The Corps Network), Joel Rogers (UW-Madison/ COWS/Center for State Innovation), Gene Sofer (Susquehanna Group), Lisbeth Shepherd (Innovations in Civic Participation), Susan Stroud (Innovations in Civic Participation).

[Revolving loan fund definition: A loan is made to a business and as repayments are made, funds become available for new loans to other businesses.]

Cites the ASES RE&EE job figures
In low-income communities, weatherization has been an economic stimulus, supporting 8,000 technical jobs in low income communities nationwide, which represents 52 jobs for every $1 million invested by the Department of Energy. Increasing the number of homes weatherized an other conservation investments will create new jobs. According to a cost-benefit analysis conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, every dollar invested in weatherization produces $3.71, of which $1.83 is energy-related benefits and $1.88 is non-energy-related.5 [5 US Department of Energy, “Non-Energy Benefits of Weatherization, January 2003,” p. 1, summarizing results of Martin Schweitzer and Bruce Tonn, Non-Energy Benefits from the Weatherization Assistance Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, April, 2002.]
Within AmeriCorps, and as a sizable new initiative, the Clean Energy Corps will take
environmental service to scale, using the experienced infrastructure of America’s Service
and Conservation Corps. We propose funding at $300 million a year for a decade.
Annually this would increase the number of Corpsmembers to 40,000, double the number
of Corps, result in 2 million hours of service, and generate over half a million unpaid
volunteers in green service.
Examples: Weatherization corps projects in MT, OH CA; Light and water household retrofits in Denver; Rebuild or retrofit houses in WI

CAP 5-pager on GCJs in DC

2008-02-25T08:14:00.000-08:00

http://www.greenforall.org/resources/cap-bracken.pdf

Hendricks and Goldstein, Ctr for Am Prog, 5 Oct 2007

Cites ASES (Mgmt Info System) report on number of RE&EE jobs
"Green collar jobs are quite diverse, covering a host of environmentally-related employment opportunities from entry level unskilled labor, to technical positions requiring certification, to professions based on college or graduate degrees."
"For the purposes of the DC effort, the largest opportunities and central goals are to develop small businesses and a labor market capable of filling the pipeline of demand created by 1) the new Green Building Law, 2) potential responses to storm water management policies, 3) forthcoming comprehensive energy policies, 4) lead paint abatement, 5) river restoration, and 6) a city-wide commitment to reducing carbon emissions to fight climate change."
LSDBE - Local, Small, Disadvantaged Business Enterprises
3 strategies for GCJ workforce development: apprenticeship and training - union- and employer-based; assisting local firms to participate in green markes; recruiting regional/national firms to locate in area
To move forward quickly in developing this effort, the following should be top priority
• Who can we bring to the table now, in job training and on the employer side?
• What employers and industries can move most quickly into creating green collar
jobs?
• What public and non-profit programs can be easily expanded or enhanced to
serve the green collar jobs market?
• What additional research needs must be answered in the short term to design an
effective and strategic program?

GIS resources

2008-02-25T08:08:00.000-08:00

National atlas
http://www-atlas.usgs.gov/natlas/Natlasstart.asp

NREL GIS data
http://www.nrel.gov/gis/

12 Feb 2008

2008-02-12T07:29:00.000-08:00

Today:
Met about DC proposal. Bob will send responses to questions today.
Looking through CAP proposal and CAP env/energy website.
Watched video for Capturing the Energy Opportunity - more show than substance
Bush's energy budget analysis: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/02/energy_budget.html
More support for fossil fuels, less for renewable energy, cutting efficiency/weatherization funding.
Says Science articles on biofuel show need for sustainable fuels; cites jobs associated with ethanol production.
Bush pulled FutureGen (first big CCS demo project) off line due to cost overruns.
House hearing on cap-and-trade in Jan - should auction rather than give away. Discuss some problems with European system, including giveaway, lack of transparency, constant rule changes. Podesta advocated 10/45/45 plan outline in CAP's report.
[Check Washington Post article on green jobs; also Time magazine and CNN feature on Situation room]
Van Jones' Green Collar jobs article on Huffington Post, good links to green collar programs: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/van-jones/memo-to-candidates-green_b_82967.html

Second WSJ post on Environmental Capital blog about Green Collar Jobs http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/02/01/take-two-green-collar-jobs/
reviews different definitions of the term. We've come across most of them: cites Pinderhughes (blue collar jobs in green businesses); ASES report (90% are "light green collar" like lawyers, accountants, etc.) and the Green Collar Careers blog (http://greencollar.wordpress.com/2008/01/04/green-collar-subjects-and-sectors-part-1/).

NPR Green Collar Jobs story (3 min)
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17307587
Bay area shortage in GCJs. Gov't run training program in Richmond - interview trainee. Interviews Pinderhughes. Defines GCJs as manual labor jobs in green industries.

Notes on Bob's CAP Proposal:
Public investment on public-sector-led initiatives is most effective short-term policy intervention - should finance green growth initiatives, esp. new building construction and retrofitting.
Questions in need of further explication -
1. C/B analysis & credible estimates of gov't expenditures needed to make CAP program elements effective (e.g., low-carbon transport infrastructure)
2. Employment effects (compared to BAU)
3. Regional effects: Differences in effective policies in different regions. How are C/Bs distributed among regions and how to be fair?
4. Need to have solid grasp of 1-3 to ensure effectiveness as countercyclical policy.

Proposed study - study series of alternate growth paths:
0. BAU energy infrastructure; S-R and L-R scenarios
1. Cap and trade - problematic on its own, since imposes new costs on producers and consumers
2. Cap and redistribute on progressive basis (Jim Boyce's paper)
3. Divide revenues between redist and green investments. CAP study proposes 10% transitional assistance, 45% to low-income households, 45% to new green growth investments (of $746 billion over 2009-2018). But is $335 billion over 10 years enough to support green investments and provide effective countercyclical measure? Small % of military budget.
4. Appropriate level of fiscal support for green initatives decided through C/B analysis, employment effects, regional effects, countercyclical effects.

Employment effects of alternative spending targets, a la the demilitarization report, but more extensive and carefully specified. Also provide region-by-region estimates.

Employment effects of state-level public investment programs
PERI study showing that public investment (not just public spending) correlated with higher job growth.
For CAP study, will synthesize relative employment effects analysis with public investment as job creator analysis. Can also generate relative distributional effects.

Reviewed Bob & Heidi's demilitarization report: http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/other_publication_types/PERI_IPS_WAND_study.pdf
Were not able to look at renewable energy, since info wasn't yet available. Possible to do more thorough study for CAP lacking this, and probably other, data?
Used IMPLAN?
[Bob and James' study referenced in CAP proposal not yet available.]

Intro to IMPLAN - from Univ of FL
http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/FE168
Basic (serves non-local markets) and service (serves local markets) industries. Not differentiated based on what they produce, but who they produce for. Division helps direct and indirect effects.

Renewable Energy Access - 9 Feb 2008

2008-02-11T06:47:00.000-08:00

Feed in tariff good for Germany, not right for US
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/recolumnists/story;jsessionid=6525A7D0C06BFF51CD515B11ABB42CE8?id=51362

RE firms compete for talent in tight markets
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story;jsessionid=6525A7D0C06BFF51CD515B11ABB42CE8?id=51408

Cambridge Energy Research Associates report - Future of Clean Energy
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/infocus/story;jsessionid=6525A7D0C06BFF51CD515B11ABB42CE8?id=51396

First commercial-scale tidal energy installation in Ireland
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=51414

RE&EE Workforce Training Conference- Hudson Valley Community College
https://www.hvcc.edu/energyconference/

11 Feb 2008

2008-02-11T06:41:00.000-08:00

Today:
Pick up where I left off with McCain-Lieberman bill. When done with PPT report, look through excel spreadsheets to try to better understand model.
Familiarize with all federal CC legislation.
Look at state/regional/local CC legislation.

End of day:
Finished taking notes on M-L bill. Held off on looking more closely at models (if this is even possible. May be proprietary). Combed through economic analysis performed by EIA and took some notes, not as extensively.
Began looking at Low Carbon Economy Act (Sen Bingaman) and taking notes.
Discussed statistical questions posed by DC people with Heidi. Difficult to know up front what survey will look like or who to include.
Read quickly through CAP proposal.

Tomorrow:
9:30 meeting to discuss DC questions
Read through DC proposal
Begin thinking about CAP stuff? - See what DC meeting brings up.

8 Feb 2008

2008-02-08T07:02:00.000-08:00

Today: Review of climate change legislation and gov't agency economic analyses
1. Read popular accounts of what is contained in legislation - take notes on main parts. Try to gauge how much support there is, likelihood of passing.
2. Comb through actual legislation to fill in holes.
3. Look at economic analyses and try to understand how model worked and what assumptions were made, particularly concerning discount rate, assumed cost increases, price of carbon, etc.

Began with McCain-Lieberman act - see memo. Still going through the "full report" which is in powerpoint form. Resume on p. 61 of PDF.

7 February 2008

2008-02-07T09:08:00.001-08:00

Got CAP project - awaiting details/instructions. Bob said they mentioned McCain-Lieberman bill and Stern Review. Will look these over.
Looked over Washington DC RFP and related documents.

EPA page of economic analyses of climate change mitigation programs:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/economicanalyses.html

6 February 2008

2008-02-06T12:35:00.001-08:00

Completed summary of 2007 energy bill and sent to Bob
Continued memo on biomass stats.

Tomorrow:
Search US code for references to biomass/biofuel: http://uscode.house.gov/search/criteria.shtml

5 February 2008

2008-02-05T04:54:00.000-08:00

Continued summary of 2007 Energy Bill - purpose is to give idea of what is in bill (which technologies/programs are being supported) and to give appropriation amount, if available.
Later - compare this to CAP report. Many similar programs, but need to check for differences in content/scope/funding.

Tomorrow
1. Finish summary, filling in details on biofuels and CAFE parts (4 hours).
2. Finish biofuels/biomass memo - incorporate findings from Ann's printouts and ask Heidi about biomass job findings. Check the major energy/employment reports (Kammen, etc.)

4 February 2008

2008-02-04T06:49:00.000-08:00

Energy bill/energy legislation memo for Bob:
H.R.6 - Renewable Fuels, Consumer Protection, and Energy Efficiency Act of 2007.
Passed 13 Dec 2007

Text of bill: http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c110:H.R.6.ENR:

ENR committee 2-page summary of HR-6: http://energy.senate.gov/public/_files/HR6EnergyBillSummary.pdf

Internal Revenue Code of 1986: Sec. 45 - Electricity produced from certain renewable resources, etc. http://www.taxalmanac.org/index.php/Internal_Revenue_Code:Sec._45._Electricity_produced_from_certain_renewable_resources%2C_etc.

Tomorrow:
1. Finish memo about energy bill - be sure to focus on biomass/biofuel. Also, add bit about current PTCs for biomass.
2. Work on biomass fact sheet.

Nevada Gets First U.S. Solar Thermal Plant

2008-01-10T06:35:00.000-08:00

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=50850

December 14, 2007

Nevada Gets First U.S. Solar Thermal Plant

Las Vegas, Nevada [RenewableEnergyAccess.com]

Ausra Inc. announced it is building the first U.S. manufacturing plant for solar thermal power systems in Las Vegas. The 130,000-square-foot, highly automated manufacturing and distribution center will produce the reflectors, towers, absorber tubes and other key components of the company's solar thermal power plants.

"With market-priced solar power, we are entering the Solar Decade, in which massive construction of solar plants will take place."

--Bob Fishman, President and CEO, Ausra

In November 2007, Ausra and California utility PG&E announced a power purchase agreement for a one-square-mile, 177-megawatt (MW) power plant. Ausra's new facility will manufacture the solar field equipment for the PG&E project and for other power projects throughout the southwest. The factory will be capable of making over 700 MW of solar collectors per year and will begin regular operation in April 2008.

"Americans want clean power, and are tired of the market fluctuations, price increases, and pollution from fossil power plants. With market-priced solar power, we are entering the Solar Decade, in which massive construction of solar plants will take place. We are investing now in the systems and capacity to serve that need," said Bob Fishman, president and CEO of Ausra.

Mass Commonwealth Solar Program

2008-01-10T06:33:00.000-08:00

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=50893

December 18, 2007
Massachusetts Announces Commonwealth Solar Program
Boston, Massachusetts [RenewableEnergyAccess.com]

The Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources announced the state's new Commonwealth Solar program designed to encourage the use of solar photovoltaic (PV) power by offering rebates that reduce the cost of solar panels and installation. The new program, which makes use of existing renewable energy funds, is expected to result in the installation of more than 27 megawatts of solar power capacity over the next four years. Under Commonwealth Solar, businesses and residences that install PV systems from 2008-2012 will be eligible for rebates averaging $3 per watt at the start of the program. Rebates will be higher for installation of Massachusetts-manufactured solar panels, and they will decline with the size of the installation. "This is the kind of renewable energy program envisioned in the Green Communities legislation that unanimously passed the House of Representatives last month," said Massachusetts House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi. "It is important to move swiftly and to use all available resources to reduce our dependence on imported fuels."

Energy Bill Update

2008-01-10T06:27:00.000-08:00

Energy bill signed into law by Bush on 19 Dec 2007
DOES NOT include the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) or investment/production tax credits for renewables
Does include the Green Jobs Title (Title X) that I wrote memo about
Renewable fuel standard (RFS) of 36 bill gallons by 2022 (5x current levels)
CAFE std of 35mpg by 2020
Federal buildings must use Energy Star or other designated energy efficient products by end of fiscal 2013
New appliance efficiency standards in Energy Policy and Conservation Act
Establish Office of High-Performance Green Buildings in US Gen Services Admin

CAP Report - Capturing the Energy Opportunity

2008-01-08T06:55:00.000-08:00

Podesta, J., T. Stern and K. Batten (2007). Capturing the Energy Opportunity: Creating a Low-Carbon Economy. Washington, D.C.: Center for American Progress, November.

Part of "Progressive Growth" CAP's economic plan for next administration
pp. 36-37: summary of recommended policies with columns for "what does it do?" "environmental benefits," and "economic/job benefits." No consistent methodology for assessing economic/job benefits - what does BP have in mind to add meat? In many cases, the recommended size/expense of the program is not discussed, which would make I-O analysis hard.
21,36 Cap and trade emissions to achieve 80% reduction of 1990 levels by 2050. All permits auctioned. Create $75 bill in auction rev annually over first 10 years. Estimate based on 10 studies, by EIA EPA, MIT, Tellus, and several private authors (ftnt 44). 10% to compensate businesses in energy intensive sectors (and affected shareholders, employees, communities). 45% to offset energy price increases for low- and moderate-income Americans. 45% to science&tech innovation "across the board" and funding for RD&D, tax incentives, other initiatives. STILL VAGUE - NOT CLEAR HOW MONEY IS ALLOCATED.
36 Eliminate tax breaks and subsidies for oil and gas. Generate $6 bill annually over 10 years "for investment in low carbon policies" described in the paper. Numbers from Friends of Earth 2006 report (ftnt 45).
TRANSPORTATION: how much will these policies cost? who will benefit? who administers?
Higher CAFE stds: 40mpg by 2020 and 55 by 2030. MANDATE - NO DIRECT GOV'T COST.
Feebates: surcharge on gas guzzlers goes toward rebates for efficient vehicles of same class. REVENUE NEUTRAL (ADMIN COSTS).
Manufacturing retooling incentives: promote production of fuel efficient vehicles. COST?
Healthcare for hybrids: legacy healthcare cost support in return for production of more efficient vehicles. COST?
Efficient vehicles tax credit: $4000 for most efficient vehicles, regardless of technology. COST?
Plug-in hybrid tax credit: $8000 for first 1 million plug-ins. COST - up to $8 bill.
Alternative Fuel Standard: 25% low-carbon transport fuels (incl. electricity) by 2025
Variable Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC): update to make credit vary with price of oil
Low-Carbon Fuel Standard: reduce lifecycle emissions from transportation fuels by 10% by 2020
Renewable Fuels Certification Program
Alternative fuel pumps mandate: 15% of fuel pumps (incl. charging stations for PHEVs) provide low-carbon fuels in any county where 15% vehicles can run on these fuels
Mass transit and smart growth. MORE SPECIFIC PLANS?
ELECTRICITY:
National Energy Efficient Resource Standard: utilities meet 10% energy savings through efficiency upgrades by 2020
Decouple utility sales from profits
Grid upgrade: increase efficiency of transmission, encourage dist. gen
Appliance energy efficiency standards
Building efficiency: improving building codes, retrofitting public buildings, incentivize deployment of dist gen, energy efficient housing grants and mortgages
Renewable Electricity Standard (RPS): 25% by 20
Tax credits and low-interest loans for renewables: SPECIFICS?
CO2 sequestration: commercial demonstration projectsqu
Emissions standards and CO2 capture funds for new coal-fired facilities
Green gov't purchasing: vehicles, low-carbon fuels, energy efficiency, RE
Taxpayer investments should reduce and withstand the effects of global warming. HOW TO INSTITUTIONALIZE?
Gov't partnerships to develop CC adaptation strategies: with state and local gov't, non-profits, businesses
White House National Energy Council: prioritize global warming
Energy Innovation Council: interagency group, develop multi-year national energy RD&D strategy
Energy Technology Corporation: finance and execute large-scale, commercially viable demo projects
Clean Energy Investment Administration: loan guarantees for clean energy projects
Clean Energy Job Corps: training for "green collar" workers
More low-carbon energy RD&D: more than double current investment
Create E-8 group of countries: developed and developing countries, devoted to confronting ecological/resource issues
Investment in developing countries' energy/environment sectors

QUESTIONS/STUFF TO RESEARCH
p. 20 Problems with EU emissions trading scheme
Safety and cost information on underground CO2 storage

8 Jan 2008

2008-01-08T06:53:00.000-08:00

Back from break. Won't be doing Heidi's phone calls, as planned, so I have January to research.
Began yesterday by reading Ctr for American Progress (CAP) Nov 2007 report titled "Capturing the Energy Opportunity." Need to talk to Bob about what, exactly, I should be doing.

Tomorrow:
Go through CAP report again and fill in notes and questions. Begin looking into questions identified, as well as sources from footnotes that seem interesting.

Memo ideas

2007-11-30T07:43:00.000-08:00

- Renewable energy technology costs, histories and projections. Learning curves.
- State of national RE promotion legislation. Current energy bill.
- Corporate RE initiatives (Google)
- RE and investment (UNEP report)

Jamasb and Kohler 2007 Learning curves for energy tech

2007-11-30T06:49:00.000-08:00

Jamasb, T. and J. Kohler (2007). "Learning Curves for Energy Technology: A Critical Assessment," in Delivering a Low Carbon Electricity System: Technologies, Economics and Policy, Ed. M. Grubb, T. Jamasb, and M. Pollitt. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Forthcoming. Available online at (accessed 30 Nov 2007).

INTRO
1 Cites Schumpeter's invention-innovation-diffusion paradigm of technical change
1-2 Developments in macro (endogenous technical change) and micro (learning curve)
2 Need for innovation in environmental and energy technology revived interest in learning curve concept
3 Learning curve originally had labor as dependent variable and manufacturing/production as independent. Using price (DV) and capacity (IV) requires attention to determinants of innovation
LEARNING CURVES AND TECHNICAL CHANGE
5 Bar chart showing estimated learning rates in electricity production technologies, from survey of studies. Varies widely. Generally higher for newer technologies.
6 Incorporating learning curves can change outcomes of cost of climate change models, but all depends on assumptions
6 Important assumption in experience curve is what "floor cost" is thought to be - so cost doesn't decline to 0 as time goes to infinity, floor cost must be specified. But how do we know??
7 Benefits of endogenous technical change beyond direct Pigouvian benefits of carbon abatement - spillover/technology diffusion effercts. "This will result in a positive spillover that will offset the negative spillover usually hypothesized to result from the migration of polluting industries."
7 Need menu of policies in addition to carbon caps
THEORY-INFORMED MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY LEARNING
Questions remain about causal links between experience and cost
Authors really like two-factor learning curves (2FLCs) that incorporate R&D.
This is what Klaassen (2005) did, but since R&D funding was only public funding, seemed like results gave too much credit to R&D.
10 "A simultaneous equations model with capacity and R&D as well as endogeneity of capacity on cost transforms single-factor models from partial empirical functions into learning-innovation-diffusion models that conform to basic elements and feedback of technical change process and invention-innovation-diffusion paradigm."
11 Problems: development of technologies unlikely to look list past progress; lack of long-term, detailed data.
12 Still, evidence for some degree of experience-based cost reduction overwhelming.
LEARNING CURVES FOR LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY SECTOR
Can help determine whether funds for tech promotion allocated in proportion to their relative effectiveness (assumes 2FLC - help tell us relative effectiveness of R&D and deployment, i guess)
Can also be used to estimate total required investment on R&D and capacity support for bringing tech cost down to given level
CONCLUSIONS
15 Incorporation of learning curves can change estimates of costs of stabilization and policy conclusions (e.g., used in Stern review)
16 Recommends models that include R&D, but acknowledges lack of suitable data
17 Learning models can be used to analyze effect of international policy coordination and pooling R&D resources or deployment initiatives in order to accelerate technical progress. (How?)
17 Extension: non-electricity energy sources, other environmental technologies, energy storage technologies. Also, use to answer shorter-term questions (not necessarily doubling of capacity).

Wuppertal Institute Request - China, CC, Employment

2007-11-30T06:00:00.000-08:00

1.) Is there any economic world model that you can recommend to use
in order to quantitatively estimate employment impacts of climate
change/adapation/mitigation with a focus on China (different sectors
and regions are taken into account, GDP and non-GDP sectors,
technological progress and intertemporal changes of financial
investment are considered in an adequate manner, etc.)? Or are there
"adhoc aproaches" (based on scenarios and different indicators as
drivers) which you recommend to use?

2.) According to your point of view, to what extent is such a
quantification of emplyoment impacts for China possible (where are
the limitations, what could be challenges, etc.)?

3.) How do you judge the data situation for China?

4.) What are the potential costs of such a project? Would 100.000 US
$ be enough?

5.) Can you recommend further contact persons (inside and outside
China)?

My response:

1. The DICE (Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) model, developed by William Nordhaus, is a non-proprietary integrated assessment model that is downloadable online. As I mentioned before, I'm not sure it would be possible to use a model like this to estimate something as specific as employment impacts in particular sectors, but it might be possible to make some assumptions about employment as related to GDP and use the model to estimate macro effects.

2. Regarding ad hoc approaches, the Global Development and Environment (GDAE) institute has published two regional studies on the economic impact of climate change: one for the UK and one for the state of Florida, neither of which used a formal model. These are available on their website: http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/policy_research/ClimateChange.htm. They aren't about employment effects specifically, but they may provide guidance on how to develop climate change scenarios.

3. Frank Ackerman at GDAE coauthored the reports mentioned above, and he has also worked with the DICE model. He may be a useful contact for ideas about the China study. His email is frank.ackerman@tufts.edu.

30 Nov 2007, Morning

2007-11-30T05:55:00.000-08:00

1. Spend a little time looking at China, climate, employment
2. Finish Jamasb and Kohler (2007) chapter on learning curves for energy technology
3. Make a list of memos I could write with current information + little additional research

Papers citing Papineau (2006), mostly on learning curves in RE tech

2007-11-28T11:27:00.000-08:00

Power Generation Technology Choice in the Presence of Climate Policy
http://epubl.ltu.se/1402-1757/2005/76/LTU-LIC-0576-SE.pdf
Thesis from a student at a Swedish university
How will future investments in Swedish power sector be affected by Kyoto protocol carbon pricing policies? Also looks at impacts of technology learning/cost decreases in presence of climate policy.

Choice of Environmental Policy in the Presence of Learning by Doing
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7G-4J7B118-1&_user=1516330&_coverDate=03%2F31%2F2006&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000053443&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=1516330&md5=fe09284bdd3ec97c480ca6151c0a49ac
Entirely model-based; no empirical tests. Concludes that environmental policy should be market based, not regulatory.

Analysis of Energy Technology Change and Associated Costs
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/112608246/PDFSTART
Complex mathematical model used to predict when market breakthroughs would happen for several technologies - looks like it might have some good cost info nonetheless.

A methodology for validating the renewable energy data in EU
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V4S-4MHPBN5-2&_user=1516330&_coverDate=10%2F31%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000053443&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=1516330&md5=6a92e1cfcca67bd2f19408eb8ae581da
Not much new information, but good review of existing methods of evaluating RE implementation.

Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V4S-4N5CSJD-1&_user=1516330&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000053443&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=1516330&md5=8aced6dac1fb2f0f8b371fa9078bc10e
Estimates various econometric specifications of LBD models using data on wind installations in 4 European countries.

Learning curves for energy technology: a critical assessment
http://www.electricitypolicy.org.uk/pubs/wp/eprg0723.pdf
Says learning curves have been applied uncritically in past. Paper looks mostly theoretical, but some review of past studies.

Papineau 2006 Experience curves in RE technologies

2007-11-28T09:09:00.000-08:00

Papineau, M. (2006). "An economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies," Energy Policy 34, 422-432.

Unlike Klaassen et al (2005), this paper uses price of the equipment (turbine, module, etc.) rather than total investment costs per kW (though one regression did use price of wind power as the DV).
Depending on the data available, uses either cumulated capacity (MW), cumulated electricity GWh), or cumulative output (total industry shipments) as independent variables.
Estimates learning equations of the form logP = a + blogX for individual countries and for panels.
Implies that a 1% increase in X (capacity, electricity, or output) will result in a b% decrease in the dependent variable - usually price.
The progress ratio (PR=2^b) gives the percent of the previous price the new price will be after each doubling of the independent variable. The learning rate (LR) is 1-PR.
Regressions of price against any of these dependent variables give statistically significant b parameters, and show learning ratios of between 10% and 20% for solar and 5-10% for wind.
However, adding time trend (year) variable reduces significance and reduces learning ratio.
Possible reasons for results: Use of price (rather than cost) as DV; price and cost changes affected by entry of new competitors and changes in industry concentration; price may change as result of gov't subsidies without change in production efficiency; since output determined by price AND price determined by output, the random disturbance term will be correlated with the regressor and estimated parameters will be biased and inconsistent.
Learning equations with R&D (and R&D expenditures divided by annual sales, and RD/S*cumulated output) instead of capacity were estimated, and the only results shown included the time trend variable. Coefficients on R&D variables were very small, significant only in the case of PV in the US, and occasionally were positive (wrong sign). Doesn't say where R&D data came from, but seems to be IEA gov't expenditure on R&D on various RE technologies.
Concludes by saying the results support introduction of "imperfect foresight and stochastic uncertainty of learning rates in energy system models."
Also says increased funds should be allocated to R&D, though this conclusion can't be based in the results of her econometric results, since R&D funding (when time trend variable included) apparently had very small impact on price reductions. However, author was not explicit about the measurement of the independent or dependent variables in these estimations.

Klaassen et al 2005 Impact of R&D on wind innovation

2007-11-28T08:24:00.000-08:00

Klaassen, G., A. Miketa, K. Larsen, T. Sundqvist (2005). "The impact of R&D on innovation for wind energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Ecological Economics 54, 227-240.

227-8 Policy intervention to help RE justified on basis of "technological learning" - phenomenon of cost decreasing as cumulative installation increases.
Extend this argument to learning effects of R&D.
228 Uses two-factor learning curve (2FLC) model to look at effe3cts of cumulative capacity AND knowledge stock (from past R&D expenditures.
229 Review of Denmark policy: Test station that tested every wind turbine for market release, and timing of shift of funds from R&D to market introduction through FITs important.
229-30 Germany: Says early R&D programs generally considered failures. Small Germany windmill manufacturers benefited from Danish expertise.
230 UK: Seems not to recognize that the RO and the NFFO were two different systems.
These policy reviews seem poorly researched.
Commonly used formulation of learning curve: SPC = A*CC^-alpha where SPC is investment cost of technology per unit (1990US$ per kW); CC is cumulative capacity (MW); -alpha is learning index; A is specific cost at unit cumulative capacity.
Implies that for each doubling of CC there is constant percentage decrease in costs, called the learning rate. Typical learning rates calculated from studies on wind turbines range from 4% to 32%.
This formulation ignores that CC is a function of demand, which itself depends on factor prices and total output produced.
Implies that costs are function only of installed capacity, and subsidies should be used to this end.
KS(t) = (1-delta)KS(t-1) + RD(t-x) Knowledge stock at time t is the knowledge stock at time (t-1), adjusted for depreciation, plus R&D expendtures in time (t-x).
New two-factor learning curve (2flc) is SPC = A*CC^-alpha*KS^-beta where -beta is learning-by-searching index.
233 Data: Public R&D expenditures for wind energy from IEA. Wind capacity installed from various sources. Average investment costs per kW from various sources. Investment cost data for UK only for one project (!)
233 "...the non-turbine part of the investment costs might amount to 10-40% of the overall investment costs."
234 Assumptions about depreciation of knowledge stock (3%) and lag with which R&D expenditures contributed to knowledge stock (2 years).
Uses the data and specifications above to econometrically estimate alpha, beta, and A (for each country). Finds that beta (the knowledge stock exponent) is almost 2.5 times as big as alpha (the CC component), indicating that R&D more important for cost reductions than installed capacity.
236 Find that results robust wrt alternative depreciation rates and time lags.
PROBLEMS: Does not take into account private R&D. (notes on p237 that private expenditures on wind energy in 1974-1999 might have been 75% more than public). Spillover effects! Most of UK's turbines, for example, come from Denmark.

Projections for Wind Capacity

2007-11-28T08:03:00.000-08:00

Renewable Energy Access news post: "Global Wind Power Base to More Than Triple by 2015," 26 Nov 2007.
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=50650

Cambridge, Massachusetts [RenewableEnergyAccess.com]

According to recently-released global wind energy country forecasts from Emerging Energy Research (EER), global wind power capacity is predicted to more than triple by 2015, with cumulative installed base expected to rise from approximately 91 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2007 to over 290 GW by the end of 2015.

"The global wind power market continues to diversify geographically from Europe to North America and Asia Pacific, with short-term supply bottlenecks giving way to longer term sustained growth," according to Senior Analyst Joshua Magee.

Significant new supply chain capacity is coming online, while Texas and California are preparing for additional massive wind build-out as transmission expansion projects move through permitting. Canada is also set for an RFP-driven boom in the coming years mainly in Ontario and Quebec, according to EER. And China is also expected to surpass its goal of 5 GW before 2009.

Europe will remain the world's largest regional market in terms of annual growth, according to EER, transitioning from established markets such as Spain and Germany to new, growing regions, the UK, France, Portugal, and Italy. Significant wind expansion is expected to occur in Eastern European markets as well, with larger markets in Poland and Turkey poised to average over 500 Megawatts of production capacity installed annually.

With demand for wind power growing around the world, most major wind turbine suppliers are increasing production capacity. New fabrication and assembly facilities are currently planned in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and South America.

"Long-term global energy demand drivers continue to favor wind build-out," according to Magee. "Steady global electricity demand increases show no sign of easing, and global emissions reduction initiatives are likely to become more prevalent beyond the current 2012 Kyoto period and will diversify into the US and Asia. Fossil fuel price volatility is likely to continue to stimulate long-term demand, with wind serving as a quickly deployable hedge against natural gas and petroleum power generation."

Watt, Megawatt, Gigawatt

2007-11-28T07:17:00.000-08:00

Wikipedia entry for watt: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt#Megawatt

The watt is the SI unit for power, equal to one joule of energy per second. It is already a rate.

A kilowatt (kW) is 1,000 watts.
A megawatt (MW) is 1,000,000 watts.
A gigawatt (GW) is 1,000,000,000 watts.
A terawatt (TW) is 1,000,000,000,000 watts.

The entry says that a typical modern nuclear plant produces a peak output on the order of 500 to 2000 MW.

--According to the IEA publication Renewable Energy Information 2007, the U.S. in 2005 produced 4268.4 TWh of electricity and 392.81 TWh of renewable electricity.
--In 2005, there was 8,706 MW of wind generating capacity, 388 MW of solar thermal generating capacity, 21,347 MW of geothermal generating capacity, and about 121,000 MW of hydro generating capacity.

Goggle RE initiative

2007-11-28T06:53:00.000-08:00

Renewable Energy Access post on Google's RE initiative:
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story;jsessionid=8AA3AAA0D74352B373860E4200B5842B?id=50683

November 28, 2007

Google Mounts Renewable Energy Initiative

Mountain View, California [RenewableEnergyAccess.com]

Google has announced a new initiative to develop one gigawatt [THAT'S A LOT!] of electricity from renewable energy sources. The newly created initiative will focus primarily on advanced solar thermal power, wind power technologies, enhanced geothermal systems and other potential breakthrough technologies.

The initiative will be known as REGoogle will make investments in and provide grants to a variety of organizations in the renewable energy field, including companies, R&D laboratories and universities. eSolar Inc [SOLAR THERMAL POWER] and Makani Power Inc. [HIGH ALTITUDE WIND ENERGY] have already been named as two of Google's partners in the initiative.

"We have gained expertise in designing and building large-scale, energy-intensive facilities by building efficient data centers," said Larry Page, Google Co-founder and President of Products. "We want to apply the same creativity and innovation to the challenge of generating renewable electricity at globally significant scale, and produce it cheaper than from coal."

************
Google website: http://www.google.com/corporate/green/energy/index.html
RE

Hiring engineers and energy experts to do R&D
Expects to spend "tens of millions" in 2008 on R&D and related investments + "hundreds of millions" in breakthrough RE technologies
Says 1 GW can power San Francisco
Company intends to be carbon neutral in 2007 - has 1.6MW corporate solar panel installation

*******
1-pager on eSolar, one of the two companies Google is working with
http://www.google.com/corporate/green/energy/esolar.pdf

Solar thermal technology
Developed modular power plant architecture to take advantage of mass manufactured components, in order to make capital cost of the solar field less than capital costs + fuel costs of traditional system
Modular, scalable plant with generating capacities of 25MW to 500MW
Minimizes installation time and cost
Replications of components within modules and repetition of modules within plant provide energy security

**********
1-pager on Makhani Power, Inc., the other company Google is working with
http://www.google.com/corporate/green/energy/makani.pdf

High altitude wind energy - avg wind energy 10 times greater than well-sited terrestrial turbine
Dependable energy source
Graph showing increase in power with increase in altitude (increasing returns to height 0-6km then decreasing 6-10km)

********************
NYT article: "Google’s Next Frontier: Renewable Energy," by Brad Stone, 28 Nov 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/28/technology/28google.html?hp

"Mr. [Jordan] Rohan of RBC Capital Markets said that the returns were not obvious. “The only positive byproduct of this project that would be anything other than environmental,” he said, “is that it might make Google managers and executives even prouder of the fact that they work there, and it may help retain key employees who think their goal is to do good in the world. But I’m really stretching.”"
Gist of article is that analysts think Google venturing too far afield from their business.
But reminder that "In their Letter From the Founders before the company’s 2004 initial public stock offering, Mr. Page and Mr. Brin wrote: “Our goal is to develop services that significantly improve the lives of as many people as possible. In pursuing this goal, we may do things that we believe have a positive impact on the world, even if the near-term financial returns are not obvious.”"

****************

San Francisco Chronicle article, "Google to spend hundreds of millions on developing renewable energy," by Verne Kopytoff, 28 Nov 2007. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/28/MN8UTJR7P.DTL

"Google also hopes to license any technology spawned from the effort to other companies so that they, too, can reduce their reliance on more polluting forms of energy while saving money. Co-founder Sergey Brin raised the possibility that the fees will be a new source of revenue for his company, but insisted that the goal isn't to rake in big profit."
Other companies investing in clean energy include Walmart, Cisco Systems, Hewlett Packard
Google's financial contribution relatively minor when measured against total investment in RE
"Ron Pernick, co-founder of Clean Edge, an energy research company, said U.S. venture capital investment alone in clean energy was $2.4 billion, according to a joint study by Clean Edge and Nth Power, a venture capital firm."
Not clear whether investment will fund anything new - Google announced few specifics
Goal of making RE cost competitive with coal IS new commitment
Coal costs 2-4 cents per kWh, depending on location. Google execs say RE will have to drop 1-3 cents per kWh to make it cost competitive.
"If a large fraction goes to investing into companies that are being created anyway, then it's a big drop in a bucket," [James Sweeney, a Stanford professor and director of the university's Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency] said. "But if it's funding basic research, which isn't getting enough funding, then it's probably a significant force in moving this forward."

28 November 2007, Morning

2007-11-28T06:50:00.000-08:00

Today:
1. Check REA.com for any updates.
2. Look for information on cost of wind that divides expense between equipment and non-equipment costs (a la the CA PV report).
3. Check the article on non-fixed coefficient I-O analysis.

RAND Study on Cost effects of increasing RE use

2007-11-26T09:25:00.000-08:00

Bernstein, M.A., J. Griffin, R. Lempert (2006). Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures of Increasing Renewable Energy Use. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
In Z:// drive under RAND 2006 RE use and RE expend

This report was pulled off of RAND's website. Why?
Assesses impact of 25% of electric and motor vehicle energy by renewables by 2025 on total national energy expenditures and air pollution. Conducted for Energy Future Coalition, 25X25' alliance.
Based on 1,500 simulation runs, covering variety of cost scenarios. RE shown to lower total energy expenditures in almost all cases where current energy price and technology trends continue.
Even with bad assumptions, percent price increase is small: "Indeed, the most extreme of the 1,500 scenarios produced no more than a 6-percent change in energy expenditures, or about $75 billion in 2025. This includes the most favorable scenario for nonrenewable energy simulated—in which the costs of renewable energy technology rise 30 percent during the next 20 years, while natural gas, oil, and coal prices fell 50 percent from current projections." p. xii (12) "Similarly, in the best-case scenarios for renewable energy, our renewables case could reduce energy expenditures by about 3 percent, or $40 billion." Relatively narrow range.
EIA uses National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to make energy market forecasts. This study uses simplified version that requires less processing time.
Assume most favorable renewable sites are used first; therefore costs increase after a point in some of the projections.
p6 (24): Table of Technologies and Issues (sort of a pros and cons list for each)
p7: "...the global market for wind, solar, and biofuels is about $40 billion, according to Clean Edge, a Bay Area marketing firm (Makower, Pernick, and Wilder, 2006)."
Assumes significantly higher costs as wind penetration increases, since cost of transmission from site of good wind resource to site of use is assumed to increase. In fact, wind section is mostly discussion of problems: intermittancy, aesthetic problems, bird killing, noise.
Assessment of solar PV more favorable: intermittant, but more predictable. Installed close to source, though many small modules will require changes in planning and management of grid.
Section on ethanol also favorable. Says recent review by Farrell et al. (2006) in Science shows that corn ethanol production produces more energy than it consumes. Unlike past studies, "the Farrell et al. analysis accounted for the economic value of by-products from corn ethanol production, notably dried distiller grains (used for animal feed), gluten feed, and corn oil" p.10, but unsure whether these markets will remain robust if ethanol production amped up. Seems that these byproduct markets necessary for ethanol to yield positive net energy benefits. Also, soil erosion and nutrient runoff are significant environmental costs.
Notes that corn-based ethanol production can only expand so far before impinging on food supply. Hopeful about cellulosic ethanol, though "Cellulosic ethanol is currently produced only on a precommercial demonstration
scale in one plant in Ottawa, Canada." p.11
Renewables help curb price volatility in energy markets: "Some recent studies (e.g., Berry, 2005; Bolinger and Wiser, 2005a; Owens, 2003; Awerbuch, 2003) have attempted to assess the value that renewables can provide to reduce volatility." p.12
"the EIA (EIA, 2003b) has used NEMS to estimate the effects of an RPS of 10 percent in 2020, concluding that it would have a negligible impact on energy expenditures within the United States (slight increases in the price of electricity would be offset by reductions in the price of natural gas)." p17
Cost assumptions begin on p.46 in the appendix

PV Cost Trends in California

2007-11-26T07:44:00.000-08:00

Wiser, R., M. Bolinger, P. Cappers and R. Margolis (2006). “Letting the Sun Shine on Solar Costs: An Empirical Investigation of Photovoltaic Cost Trends in California.” Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL-59282, January 2006.
Saved in Z:// drive under NREL 2006 PV Cost Trends in CA.pdf

Uses data on PV panel installations under two California subsidy programs: CEC (CA Energy Commission), which has provided rebates for small (<30kw)>30kW systems. Size and structure of programs have varied over time. 17,889 data records, 5,033 of which are just approved and the rest installed.
"In particular, the CEC initiated five gradual reductions beginning in 2003, while the CPUC imposed a single large reduction in late 2004 and a more recent reduction in mid-December 2005. On January 12, 2006, the CPUC ordered a dramatic expansion of these programs with a $3.2 billion, 11-year program of declining incentives." p. i
Uses Wac (alternating current) rather than Wdc-stc (DC Watts and standard test conditions)
Finds that costs have declined substantially over time, but less so under CPUC's program. Module costs have declined somewhat (from what looks like about $4.75 in 2004$ in 1998 to about $3.50 in 2005), but biggest cost reductions from installation and balance of systems costs.
Economies of scale: average costs lower for larger systems, with systems above 300 kWac between $7.75 and $7.90 per watt (2004$).
Finds that thin film modules reduce costs for CEC projects (by avg of $0.70 per W), but raised them slighty for CPUC projects.
Says reducing non-module costs should be primary goal of local PV programs. To this end, author recommends business development funding for installers, supporting standardized PV products, installer training and certification.
Also recommends longer-term programs to facilitate cost reductions.
50% cap on rebate induced cost inflation in some cases - says cap should be removed.
"A sizable literature has developed that explores historical PV cost trends. Much of this literature has used learning or experience curve theory to explore how increases in cumulative PV production have driven costs down over time. Findings from this literature vary, but most studies show that each doubling of cumulative production has historically led to a reduction in module prices of approximately 20% (see, e.g., Kobos et al. in press; McDonald and Schrattenholzer 2001; Neij 1997; IEA 2000; Schaeffer et al. 2004). Others have extrapolated these findings to argue that government deployment support for PV may be warranted to drive the industry down its learning curve and ultimately achieve costs that are comparable to or better than the cost of conventional electricity sources (see, e.g., van der Zwaan and Rabl 2004; Duke and Kammen 1999; Duke 2002).3" p.2
CEC program funded by ratepayers of CA's invester-owned electric utilities. CPUC program same, but funded by electric and gas ratepayers.
Silicon shortage driving prices of modules up. What's the prognosis on this?
Regression results for CEC sample on p. 21 (35). Coefficient on "module cost index" is very close to 1 in three different versions, supporting claim that module cost increases and reductions consistently passed along 1-1.

Items of Interest, found while searching for RE Cost Trends

2007-11-26T06:02:00.000-08:00

NREL's REPiS Database: Provides info on RE plants (biomass, geotherm, hydro, PV, solar thermal, wind) and installed capacity.
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/repis/

NREL's Renewable Energy Technology characterizations: From 1997, describes state of technology and makes predictions for 2000, 2005, and out to 2030. Would be interesting to study how actual developments correspond to predictions.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/tech_characterizations.html

NREL: Power Technologies Energy Data Book: March 2006. Chapters on technology profiles, state incentives that came with restructuring, forecasts of RE capacity, GIS maps of RE resources and installed capacity.
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook/

RAND Corp study "Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures of Increasing Renewable Energy Use," saying that 25% of America's energy could be supplied by renewable sources by 2025, using plausible assumptions about cost trends for fossil and RE, was withdrawn from website.
http://www.25x25.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=157&Itemid=56
Report still available here: http://www.energyfuturecoalition.org/pubs/RAND.pdf

U.S. EIA Report on Solar Thermal and PV Manufacturing Activities, 2006
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/solarreport/solar.html

26 Nov 2007, Morning

2007-11-26T05:36:00.000-08:00

Possibilities for next study:
1. U.S. State analysis
2. Analysis of cost trends in various RE technologies
3. Investigate non-fixed coefficient I-O models
4. Cost of renewable policies discussed in report
5. Interaction between RE policies and CO2 policies

19 Nov 2007, Afternoon

2007-11-19T13:33:00.000-08:00

Today:

Checked out current energy bill status
Checked REA.com
Sifted through recent issues of Energy Economics, Energy Policy, and Ecological Economics to get handle on what is going on in field. First two publish a ton of papers, using mostly mainstream methods, most of which are quite technical. Ecological Economics is, as expected, less neoclassical. Lots of case studies and articles about well-being. Not sure I have a much better handle on anything than when I started looking.

Next time:

Begin a U.S. state analysis. Look through DSIRE and figure out which states are doing what. Find articles, perhaps, on how effective different policies have been. Find resource maps of which types of RE would be most effective where.

Journal Article Review

2007-11-19T09:46:00.000-08:00

Searched for "energy" in journal titles through UMASS online journals

Annual Review of Environment and Resources
1. "ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICIES: A Retrospective Examination." Annual Review of Environment & Resources; 2006, Vol. 31 Issue 1, p161-192, 32p.
Synopsis of programs related to appliance standards, financial incentive programs, information and voluntary programs, management of government energy use.

Energy
Spring 2007 issue alone had articles on lots of different energy-related things, including grid computerization, green buildings, biofuels, EU carbon trading.

Energy and Environmental Management
UK-themed journal published between 2000-2004

Energy Economics

January 2008 issue has a lot of articles using Data Envelopment Analysis methodology (don't understand what it is). An article titled " Energy use efficiency in U.S. manufacturing: A nonparametric analysis" uses DEA to measure energy efficiency. Talks about energy intensity as traditional measure of energy efficiency and discusses different methods.
November 2007 has several articles on relationship between GDP and energy/electricity, within and across countries. "Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries" talks about how previous studies often contradictory. Says change in country's energy policy can bring about structural change in relationship between energy and GDP. Right! Not sure about their results - don't seem much more convincing than previous studies.
July 2007. Issue on modeling industrial energy consumption. Article on decoupling CO2 emissions from industrial growth in EU, using decomposition analysis. "The above shortly presented findings can be summarized in one sentence stating that the countries that showed the best environmental performance in the EU in 1990 continue to move faster in successfully implementing emission abatement measures and thus the gap between forerunners and followers has become larger in 2003." Another on the macroecon effects of efficiency policies for energy intensive industries in UK: "The results show that incentivized energy-efficiency improvements for energy-intensive industries yield positive macroeconomic effects in economic terms, with small increases in GDP (0.12% above base by 2010) and employment (0.03%), and negligible changes in general inflation. The system-wide final energy reductions is estimated to be 4.2 mtoe, or 2.6% of total final demand for energy by 2010, with a rebound effect of 19%, and a reduction of 3.3% in CO₂ emissions, a significant amount in view of the UK's Kyoto commitment of 12.5% in greenhouse gases below 1990 levels. "
May 2007 has article titled " On the importance of equity in international climate policy: An empirical analysis." Survey data shows that equity more important to developing countries, while richer countries less in favor of polluter-pays rule. Richer countries in favor of incorporating egalitarian rules in long run. Another article: " A combined input–output and sensitivity analysis approach to analyse sector linkages and CO₂ emissions."
January 2007 has article on "Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: Effects on consumption and emissions." "Briefly, the rebound effect can be described as the direct and indirect effects, such as substitution and income effects, induced by a new energy-saving technology. This rebound effect may then partly, or entirely, offset the initial or direct energy saving resulting from a new technology."... "The RE is usually discussed in connection with “new energy-saving technology”. A new energy-saving technology essentially implies a lower energy bill, which can be viewed as a reduction of the real price of energy services. Thus, if petrol costs less per transport unit, car use may increase, which partially offsets the initial energy-saving potential. Furthermore, lower energy costs increase real income, which leads to an increase in consumption of other goods. This in turn offsets the emission reductions from the initial energy saving. A third effect may be denoted general equilibrium effects, since changes in aggregate consumption patterns may lead to structural change and changes in relative prices. Taken together, these effects can be denoted the rebound effect."

Energy Policy

Dec 2007 issue: "International passenger transport and climate change: A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO₂ emissions from 2000 to 2050." "A sector wide approach to emissions mitigation may—in certain cases—be more successful than national approaches, as competitiveness risks and carbon leakage can be overcome."... Figure 3 shows income elasticities of car consumption over time for different regions. Car consumption most inelastic in US - fell below 1 by 1970. Another article, "Energy productivity improvements and the rebound effect: An overview of the state of knowledge," surveys evidence of macroeconomic rebound effect and says effect shouldn't be underestimated. Concludes..."Therefore, energy efficiency policies ought to be considered as short-term policy instruments that cannot, in any case, substitute for long-term policies that promote carbon-free or carbon-neutral energy sources." First article in issue: "Bioenergy expansion in the EU: Cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels." From abstract: "Maximizing climate benefits cost-effectively is in conflict with maximizing employment creation. The former perspective proposes the use of lignocellulosic biomass in the stationary sector, while the latter requires biofuels for transport based on traditional agricultural crops." From conclusion: "Estimates of the employment creation potential for various bioenergy options differ substantially. However, liquid biofuels based on traditional agricultural crops seem to be the most employment-intensive option, especially when the biofuel conversion plants are small. The production of biomass for energy has the potential to contribute to employment creation at a magnitude that is significant in relation to total employment in agriculture, but small compared to the total employment in industry in a country."
Nov 2007 issue: "Is the choice of renewable portfolio standards random?" What are explanatory variables for adopting an RPS (in US)? Education, political party dominancy, GSP, GRP. Article: " Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy."
Oct 2007 issue: Article on GIS assessment of RE potential in Spain. Another article, "The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics," talks about getting away from mainstream economic analysis and using more evolutionary model. Cites this article: Toman, 2006 M. Toman, Values in the economics of climate change, Environmental Values 15 (3) (2006), pp. 365–379.

Ecological Economics

Oct 2007: "Using Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the relationship between overconsumption and uncertain access to one's personal utility function." "In this paper, I seek to incorporate recent findings in hedonic psychology in order to ask the question of whether specific biases may lead to overconsumption not only from an ecological perspective, but from that of the individual as well."..."That said, under the circumstances described in this paper, workers will engage in overconsumption with respect to well-being. By this I mean that they will overengage in income-producing work and underengage in other activities, leading to a depression of well-being relative to the optimum. This is an important result because it indicates that a certain amount of pernicious consumption can be reduced through optimal policies or education, leading not only to significantly reduced ecological harm, but social benefits accruing from increased resources available for social interactions (and positive externalities from increased participation), at the same time as happiness is increased relative to the market equilibrium."
Sept 2007: Theme is valuation and C/B analysis. Editorial on Stern report critiquing its use, despite noting all problems, of a global cost benefit analysis. Another paper: " Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input–output coefficients." Questions appropriateness of learning curve, where cost declines are power function of cumulative production. "So far there are few critiques of the learning curve in energy modelling, probably because the relationship described by learning curves is derived from empirical observations. However, Cory et al. (1999) and Ibenholt (2002) in studies of wind power technology argue that the learning effect is not the only factor determining costs; other factors such as R&D investment, process innovation, input prices, economies of scale, and others can affect costs as well."... "the learning curve implicitly assumes that technology can change instantly with installed capacity, which is implausible." Possible application to non-fixed coefficient I-O tables: "We show that the top-down Leontief representation of technology can be connected with bottom-up technology, whether described as learning curves or logistic curves, by using the curve to adjust input–output coefficients."
May 2007: " Why we need a commitment approach to environmental policy"..."The second purpose is to explain why the neoclassical model is deficient as a basis for environmental policy and to explicate the nature of a more appropriate model."
March 2007: " Quality of life: An approach integrating opportunities, human needs, and subjective well-being" coauthored by half the professors at UVM

UMASS Center for EE&RE

2007-11-19T07:26:00.001-08:00

Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at UMASS
http://www.ceere.org/index.html
Team of engineers working on renewable energy and energy efficiency. Government money and public-private partnerships. Publications on website seem to end in 2004.

Fact sheet on wind turbine economics - estimating the simple payback time using assumptions about capacity factor, subsidies for wind energy, electricity prices, costs:
http://www.ceere.org/rerl/publications/published/communityWindFactSheets/RERL_Fact_Sheet_2b_Wind_Economics_Intro.pdf

Jim Boyce mentioned that James Manwell - director of the Renewable Energy team at CEERE - was local expert on FIT.

19 Nov 2007, Morning

2007-11-19T07:01:00.001-08:00

Review of Renewable Energy Access to find out state of Energy Bill. Plan to get something through conference committees before Thanksgiving has apparently been scrapped, and there seems to be new hope for both RPS and CAFE standards in the bill. A letter to Pelosi signed by 20 congress members supports these more stringent renewable/efficiency measures.

Mendonca editorial on renewable energy in EU
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/businessre/story;jsessionid=3C621C341A24E091CE4D892DA0104F8C?id=50605
Says UK New Labour gov't is at risk of sabotaging feed-in tariffs around the EU. Won't be able to meet it's EU RE target by 2020, so pushing to have targets reduced and certificate trading system that will allow it to purchase certs rather than produce energy. Cites an EU legal expert on how bad cert trading system would be for Germany. Conventional energy industry very opposed to FITs - like cert trading - allows only themselves to produce RE, not lots of independent producers.

Report from GAO office shows how R&D funds and tax support have been distributed among different types of electricity producers since 2002. Still much more support to fossils than RE.

Interview about the downsides of biofuels production with author of OECD's "Biofuels: Is the cure worse than the disease?"
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/reinsider/story;jsessionid=3C621C341A24E091CE4D892DA0104F8C?id=50616

Biofuels consumed as low-percentage blends won't substantially lower GHG emissions (maybe 15%)
Still very expensive - subsidized up to 50% (compared to 3-10% for oil)
May not pave way for second generation biofuels - this is argument of first gen producers
What about all the infrastructure that's being built in response to subsidies? Author says gov't shouldn't throw good money after bad. Let subsidies expire.
Says policies probably won't change unless big crop failure or drop in oil prices.

14 Nov 2007, Afternoon

2007-11-14T12:44:00.000-08:00

Today:

Kind of disjointed
Did some research on energy bill, apparently in conference committee and should be up for a vote soon
Also read UNEP report on RE and Investment

Next time:

NEed to think about where to go next. US and policy? Something more about jobs? Cost of technologies?

Sustainable Energy Investment 2007

2007-11-14T12:18:00.001-08:00

UNEP (2007). Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2007. UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative and New Energy Finance Limited.

Reviews high and growing levels of private investment in RE&EE, with wind, solar, and biomass biggest targets.
Emphasizes that investment is driven by policy.
Volume of investment flowing into clean energy sector dwarfs the dotcom boom. Has also lasted longer.
Asset financing largest source of sustainable energy investment - 40% of 2006 total of $70.9 billion. Wind is area with most asset financing. Biofuels dominated venture capital/private equity investment in 2006, followed by solar.
US has more VC/PE than any other region. EU27 has more assets financing.
RE accounts for 18% of power generation investment but only 2% of installed capacity.
Notes China's "bias" toward domestic manufacturers - says it is a source of uneven RE development
Marine technology not attracting much investment yet
26 "Experience form other industries, such as telecoms, software and biotech, has shown that the rate of innovation and speed of commercialisation are dramatically accelerated by the presence of a healthy population of earlier-stage companies."
Talks about U.S. and Israel as countries with strong incubator traditions
29 "The 'Kyoto Effect' can be observed, with quoted renewable energy companies in countries that have ratified the Protocol outperforming those in non-ratifying countries by 41.3%"
Competition for wind asset financing driving innovation in financial markets
Mergers and Acquisitions: Vertical integration - large wind companies buying suppliers. India and Australia net buyers of RE companies in 2006; EU-27, US, China and Latin America net sellers
UK is clear leader in carbon fund management; US second
Efficiency: EU aims to cut energy use by 20% by 2020 (not sure what baseline is). China wants to cut energy consumption by 20% w/in five years. Energy intensity four times US's in 2004.
Multilateral dev't banks important source of funding for energy efficiency; also, public sector backed venture capital funds
Small sections on China, INdia, Brazil, Africa

Concentrated Solar Power

2007-11-14T08:55:00.000-08:00

All About: CSP
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/12/eco.about.csp/

Combined solar power collects heat from the sun and heats liquids to high temps. Steam is used to drive turbines to create electricity.
Needs direct sunlight, but in deserts, creates electricity much more cheaply than PV."
Over in Europe, however, a group of scientists, politicians and renewable energy experts who call themselves The Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) have made claims on a much bigger scale and with far bigger ramifications. TREC is backing an ambitious project straddling Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA), which is based on the calculation that an area less than 0.3% of the Sahara Desert filled with CSP plants could power the entire region -- and could slash the EU's electricity-generated greenhouse gas emissions by 70% in the process."
Waste heat can be used to desalinate sea water.

U.S. RPS Coalition

2007-11-14T07:44:00.000-08:00

Coalition of US environmental groups for a 20% national RPS, led by UCS:
Blue Green Alliance, Environmental Law and Policy Center, Greenpeace, League of Conservation Voters, National Audubon Society, National Environmental Trust, Natural Resources Defense Council, Public Citizen of TX, Sierra Club, Sierra Club Cool Cities, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, United Steelworkers of America, US PIRG, and the Western Organization of Resource Councils (WORC).

from http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/clean_energy_policies/res_campaign.html#supporters

ASES Green Collar Jobs Report

2007-11-14T07:13:00.000-08:00

http://www.ases.org/ASES-JobsReport-Final.pdf

3 Developed a definition of what the RE&EE industry is: direct and indirect jobs contained in these sectors. (Is this an improvement?) Says vast majority of jobs are "standard jobs for accountants, engineers, computer analysts, clerks, factory workers, truck drivers, mechanics, etc"
4 EE hard to define - theirs is eclectic: e.g., includes vehicles that get 10 mpg higher than CAFE stds
5 Around 8 million indirect and direct jobs created by EE; 452,000 by RE
Case study of Ohio

Energy Bill Notes

2007-11-14T06:25:00.000-08:00

Sklar, S. (2007). "Lessons from the political process: Energy Bill Woes." Renewable Energy Access website: (accessed 14 Nov 2007).

Pelosi says house intends to pass energy bill by end of week of 11/17/07
CAFE increase passed by senate in June: 35 mpg average for domestic fleet by 2022 (meaning all cars made in USA or all cars driven here?)
RPS failed in a Senate vote but is included in the House bill. Low (non-existent) budgetary impact of RPS is hailed. Compared to wind PTCs, which could cost $1 billion/year.
Union of Concerned Scientists leads coalition of national environmental groups in pushing for national RPS. Electric utilities trade group, EEI, lobbying against.
Solar and fuel cell industries pushing for longer expansion of ITC (what can ITC be used for?). Only 2 years in EPACT05 - industries say it isn't long enough for large generation plants.
Technologies disregarded in EPACT05 that may be again: small wind, ground coupled heat pumps, solar daylighting, combined heat and power, and water energy (such as freeflow hydropower, tidal, wave and ocean currents and thermal)
Talks about legality of the "offsets" - which appear to be taxes or royalties collected on oil and gas leases, but not described in detail here.
When the PTC was first renewed in Dec 1999, poultry-waste facilities were included with wind and closed-loop biomass as facilities eligible for the tax credit. Power generated through offgasing of poultry waste?

Lacey, S. (2007). "U.S. Energy Bill - Early Christmas Present or Lump of Coal." Renewable Energy Access website:
(accessed 14 Nov 2007).

According to this author, the RPS and all tax provisions were removed from the bill so it could be passed before Thanksgiving
"The renewable portfolio standard, which would set a target of getting 20-25% of the nation's electricity from renewable resources by 2025, will no longer be in the bill."
Mentions this REE&E jobs report from ASES, which Heidi said is similar to the Apollo jobs report in presenting a lot of big numbers and not explaining where they came from.

UCS (2007). "Clean Energy Update - 09/2007." Union of Concerned Scientists website: (accessed 14 Nov 2007).

House apparently passed an RPS with a 220-190 vote - not yet law.
"If passed into law, the Udall-Platts-Gonzalez renewable electricity standard would require large, investor-owned utilities to acquire 15 percent of their power from clean, renewable sources like solar, wind or biomass by 2020."
Lowered 20 percent to 15 percent, allowed states to meet 1/4 through EE
UCS and PIRG publicized environmental and jobs benefits. Says a 15% std would save consumers a total of more than $16 billion by the year 2020.
Issue seems to be getting the Senate and House bills to agree. Senate bill does not include RPS (it was blocked) and House bill does not include CAFE stds.

Clayton, M. (2007). "In Big U.S. Energy Bill, Who Will Pay?" Christian Science Monitor, 7 Nov 2007. CSM website: http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1107/p01s01-wogi.html?s=yaho (accessed 14 Nov 2007).

Want to give bill to Bush to sign before xmas - need to reconcile House and Senate versions and avoid veto
RPS and CAFE stds controversial parts. Stds requiring more ethanol in gasoline, tougher efficiency standards for lighting and appliances, and the PTC have "broad legislative support."
To be paid for by repealing tax incentives to oil and gas industries, to tune of $16 bill (House version) or $32 bill (Senate).
Half the states already have RPSs, some stricter, but states that don't complain that regional differences aren't being taken into account (Southern Company, ATlanta-based utility company)
The 35 mpg CAFE std by 2020 is a 40 percent increase
Letter from Allan Hubbard, director of the president's National Economic Council, said senior advisers would recommend presidential veto for any RPS and if separate CAFE stds for cars and light trucks were not included
Says 35 mpg CAFE std would cut US oil use by 2.5 million barrels per day and save 495 MMT of CO2 emissions. 15% RPS would save 36 MMT of CO2. But this is assuming overall demand doesn't rise! Not much historical evidence for supposing it won't.

Kho, J. (2007). "Renewable Tax Credit and Portfolio Standard Could Get Cut From Energy Bill," Greentech Media website: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/renewable-tax-credit-and-portfolio-standard-could-get-cut-from-energy-bill-283.html (accessed 14 Nov 2007). 11 Nov 2007.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi discussing taking PTC and RPS out of energy bill.
"Stricter fuel economy standards for vehicles also might be endangered as Reps. Barron Hill, D-Ind., and Lee Terry, R-Neb., sent a letter Friday saying they wouldn't support such standards"
RE stocks dropped: Evergreen Solar (NSDQ: ESLR) shares dropped 11.84 percent to $14.08 per share Friday, SunPower Corp. (NSDQ: SPWR) shares fell 9.4 percent to $128.66 per share and Suntech Power fell 5.6 percent to $61.55 per share. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index, which tracks U.S. clean-energy stocks, dropped 5.19 percent Friday to 252.09.
Quotes from representatives of the solar industry say that industry will not die in U.S., but because of state standards and business from overseas.

Snow, N. (2007). "Energy bills would cost $1 trillion, 5 billion jobs, study says." Oil and Gas Journal, 14 Nov 2007. Available online at http://www.ogj.com/display_article/312060/7/ONART/none/GenIn/1/Energy-bills-would-cost-$1-trillion,-5-billion-jobs,-study-says/ (accessed 14 Nov 2007).

American Petroleum Industry-commissioned study finds proposed energy bills could cost 5 billion jobs and drain $1 trillion from US economy. [Almost as many jobs as there are people in the world!] Study performed by CRA International. Update: Checked the api.org website, and the correct number is there: 5 million.
Study examined "potential economic impacts of requiring a 10 million b/d reduction from projected 2030 US oil consumption, the use of 36 billion gal/year of renewable transportation fuels by 2022, and more than $15 billion in increased oil and gas industry taxes over 10 years."
CRA's study used the US Energy Information Administration's 2007 Annual Energy Outlook as a starting point and did not assume higher oil prices.
Authors point out shortcomings of using ethanol as substitute: uses fossil fuel to produce, 70% efficiency of gasoline, effects on food supply

14 November 2007, Morning

2007-11-14T06:09:00.000-08:00

Haven't blogged much in the past couple weeks - busy writing the comparative report draft, which is now with Bob in Kenya. Today, I'll get my desk in order and start researching again. Not sure quite where to go from here. The comparative study was interesting, but I'm not sure how much relevance the experience from other countries has for the U.S., except for broad principles (e.g., those captured in Mallon's introductory chapters on features of successful RE policies.) It's also clear that overall energy use will have to be reduced, since if RE just keeps up with growing demand, we'll no better off environment-wise.

I think I'll begin by looking into the energy bill - supposed to be passed this week? According to this piece in Renewable Energy Access, CAFE standards, an RPS, and the PTC are all on the cutting block. A'researchin' I will go...

5 November 2007

2007-11-05T15:13:00.000-08:00

Today:
Good day! Continued working on comparative study.

Next up:

Write U.S. policy history (skim EIA and Swisher first) - 1.5 hrs
Finish policy analysis sections for all countries - 3.5 hrs
Write conclusion segment, containing trends, lessons, what's missing - 2 hrs
Put together and print - 1 hr

31 October 2007

2007-10-31T12:10:00.001-07:00

Today (good, productive!):
Finished draft of Germany report and began Spain report

Next time:
Complete energy efficiency comparison charts in Excel
Continue working on Spain draft
Move on to Japan

PV Manufacturer Websites

2007-10-29T13:04:00.000-07:00

http://www2.dupont.com/Photovoltaics/en_US/assets/downloads/pdf/SEIA_StateofSolarIndustry2006.pdf

http://www.solarbuzz.com/Marketbuzz2007-intro.htm

http://www.enf.cn/database/panels.html

26 October 2007

2007-10-26T12:51:00.000-07:00

Today:

Spent most of day filling in Comparative Study Data spreadsheet with policies for Denmark and Germany. Struggled a bit with how much detail to include - probably included too much.
Met with Bob. Agreed to create a report for Thursday, November 8.

Schedule for production of the comparative study:

Monday: Denmark (4) and Japan (4)
Wednesday: Germany (4) and Spain (4)
Friday: UK (4) and US (4)
Monday: Finish up country things (4); Synthesize (4)
Wednesday: Synthesize (4)

24 October 2007

2007-10-24T13:27:00.000-07:00

Today:
Made outline - will divide by subject and have paragraph(s) for each country under each subject heading
Worked on filling in excel spreadsheet with data on countries' energy use and policies
Found a few more documents that might be useful from the European RE Council and a paper on RE policy in Germany

Next time:
Fill in more of the policy table in the spreadsheet
Interested in costs and benefits - who gets each. Possible to find more information on this?

Shum (2007) PV in Japan and U.S.

2007-10-22T12:39:00.000-07:00

Kwok L. Shum and Chihiro Watanabe (2007). "Photovoltaic deployment strategy in Japan and the USA--an institutional appraisal," Energy Policy 35, 1186-1195.

Asks why Japan has been roughly 3 times as successful (as of 2003) in PV deployment as U.S.
Combination of awareness, price supports, prospect of selling electricity back to grid
90% of Japanese PV applications are grid-connected, compared to 30% in U.S.
System cost (doesn't include module, but does include balancing costs and construction costs) has dropped rapidly in Japan, initially higher than U.S. but dropped below in 1994
Authors think this has to do with Japan's "close" model of deployment (more standard) versus U.S.'s model of deployment (application-specific)
Recommends highly vertically integrated PV companies (the "manufacturing" model) to facilitate learning and bring down costs.

del Rio 2007 C-B assessment of FIT in Spain

2007-10-22T12:03:00.000-07:00

Pablo del Rio and Miguel A. Gual (2007), "An integrated assessment of the feed-in tariff system in Spain," Energy Policy 35, 994-1012.

Time period assessed is 1999-2003
Attempts a cost-benefit analysis of FITs for various technologies during this time period. Finds that the support costs outweigh the avoided external costs in all cases. Generation costs of wind and small hydro do not outweigh the avoided external costs. Caution against doing too much with these results, though, as many assumptions must be made to come up with the total avoided external costs.
1006 Table 7 has amount of electricity generated by solar, wind, sm. hydro, biomass; price of generation and average electricity prcie
Additional burden for consumer in 2003 was 0.26 eurocents per kWh (final electricity price 3.02 eurocents per kWh)
Despite negative cost-benefit finding, says the FIT has led to significant environmental benefits and doesn't represent excessive consumer cost - comparable to those in other countries.
Low transaction costs
1007 Cost reductions since 1980s in Spain, Denmark, Sweden
In 2003, 5000 direct jobs in wind sector, 12000 indirect.
Worries about cost increases to consumers if RE become very widespread.

Lipp 2007 RES-E in DK, DE, UK

2007-10-22T09:26:00.001-07:00

Judith Lipp (2007). "Lessons for effective renewable electricity policy from Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Energy Policy 35, 5481-5495.

Uses personal interviews from Spring 2006 w/ eight RE policy experts in each country
40 jurisdictions (38 countries and 5 subnational entities) have some form of FIT; RPS in 38 jurisdictions (8 national gov'ts)
Identifies US PURPA as first FIT policy. Second wave started in DK and DE in mid-1990s
Arguments for and against FITs
3 main policy objectives: FF independence, environment, economic development and job creating + least cost
Reviews history of RE policy in each country, then examines how well objectives were met.
Finds that FIT more COST EFFECTIVE!

17 October 2007

2007-10-17T12:34:00.000-07:00

Today:
Finished reading RE sections of IEA Energy Policy documents for DK, JP, UK, SP. Very pro-market (especially the Denmark report, for some reason), but includes some potentially useful information on costs.
Read country case studies from Mallon book on Germany, Spain and U.S.
Printed Energy Policy article on RES-E from DK, DE, UK.

Next time:
Read above Energy Policy article.
Lots of interesting-looking articles in Nov 2007 edition of Energy Policy. Search the journal for other articles on focus countries.

IEA Energy Policy DK 06, UK 06, SP 05, JP 03

2007-10-17T07:59:00.000-07:00

Denmark (2006)
Renewable energy section of this report VERY pro-market. Despite the previous meteoric rise of wind power under FITs and almost complete stagnation under new, more market-based regime, the authors commend the new approach. Box on Vestas, however, attributes rise of company to domestic demand created by financial incentive policies. New system is confusing and applies different rules to turbines depending on when they were installed, but upshot is that premium is now less than it used to be. Clearly not high enough for new turbines to support market introduction. Lots of information on cost, including a table on p. 104 comparing renewables support in DK, FR, DE, and SP. Renewable energy now supported through a Public Service Obligation (like a public benefits fund) that assesses a surcharge on electricity purchased. Study by Denmark's Economic Council in 2002 concluded that all the RE investment in the 1990s was actually a negative social cost, even after attributing relatively high costs to CO2. Discusses high costs of grid integration; reliance on other forms of electricity and power from other countries to balance intermittant RE supply. Shows high costs of CO2 reduction through RE (PV esp) compared to efficiency and CHP. Report says that government hasn't committed to RE targets, but I thought I read somewhere that they had. Offshore wind, unlike onshore, part of competitive tender syste with predetermined tariff for 12 years. Government also supports decommissioning of older, smaller turbines, and report expects lots of decommissioning in end of 2009, when this program expires, since the owners of older turbines can get higher premium until then.

Spain (2005)
Spain's renewables primarily from large hydro, but wind growing rapidly, and plans for expansion of small hydro, solar, biomass. Low heating requirements and high penetration of CHP leave little room for expansion of RE into heat. Growing demand for electricity swamping gains of RE. Report reviews status in achieving goals of Plan for Promotion of RE in Spain (2000-2010). Wind has exceeded goals, but sm hydro, solar, and bio-energy all falling behind targets. Says regulated price, calculated on basis of market price, may become too high when cost of CO2 incorporated in market price unless calculation method changed. Gov't can change premium amt in annual review, which creates uncertainty for RE operators. New method for calculating premium: can either sell to distributor for premium that is fixed % of avg electric rate or sell to market at market price + incentive for market participation + premium. Generators who opt for new system can switch to old after one year if they prefer. Mentions preferential tax treatment for RE, but no specifics. Direct support include new building regulations (including mandatory solar water heating systems), R&D. Says "public subsidies are oriented to the interest rates...[for] renewable energy projects and efficiency projects." Also, "the subsidy has led to private investment of about five times the subsidy volume." Recommends, as usual, more market determination. Fair point that FIT/premium scheme should apply for predetermined time, so projects aren't subsidized past point of amortization. Suggests green certs scheme.

UK (2006)
Low levels of RE but rapid growth. Describes Renewables Obligation (RO) system; table on p. 96 with supplier obligation levels. Since program started, the obligation has yet to meet target; consequently, ROC prices are high. UK Energy Review report of July 2006 recommended technology banding, removing risk of oversupply of ROCs (how? - perhaps by maintaining obligation levels above actual level of RE production), removing increases of buy-out price with inflation after 2015 (bad!). Capital grants for offshore wind and biomass. Capital grants, R&D money, demonstration programs for PV. Obligation for RE in transport fuel beginning April 2008, plus already-existing tax incentives. Assessment: ROC not yet generating RE intended, not keeping costs down for consumers, more expensive per unit of CO2 reduced than efficiency. Recommends looking to Australia and Sweden for good cert schemes. For siting/planning issues, recommends looking at Denmark example, where citizens own shares in turbines.

Japan (2003)
Japan not ideal for wind, since resources relatively low, space is scarce, and grids not set up for it. Leads world in PV production and is second in PV power generation; about 1.5 times cost of wind energy in Europe and US. Documents cost decline of 260yet per kWh in 1993 to 66yen per kWh in 1999. Discusses policies to promote RE very vaguely. Says RPS adopted in 2002, launched in April 2003 is most significant policy. Quite similar to UK, but non-compliance fines high (up to 1 million yen). Budget for promotion of "new energy" (excludes large-scale hydro and geothermal) doubled from 1997-2002. In 2002, 38.8 billion yen spent on technology development, 10 billion on demonstration, 96.1 billoion on promotion of introduction. In critique section, "Its [RPS] pitfall is that it maximises short-term benefits at the cost of the development of technologies and energies which may be more promoising in the longer term." Recommends enhanced R&D and demonstration funds.

15 October 2007

2007-10-15T13:53:00.000-07:00

Today:

Saved IEA policy reports for Denmark, Germany, Japan, Spain, U.K. and U.S. to the Z:// drive.
Read through most of the German report - interesting, but thought it was too slow going. Printed out just the Renewable Energy chapters and read Denmark's.
IEA (an OECD organiation) is very pro-market, so while they acknowledge the success of feed-in tariffs, they strongly suggest moving toward quota systems. Denmark report seems even more hostile. References report showing that Denmark's subsidies for renewable energy provided negative social benefit, even after generous allowances for carbon costs were taken into account.
On RenewableEnergyAccess.com, learned that NY has just implemented $10 million grant program to lure RE manufacturers.
In jobs section, focus on broad-brush portraits of the various RE industries. In cost section, focus on who pays for various financial incentive programs (tax dollars or surcharge to consumers).

Next time:

Continue reading RE sections of country reports.
Read country outlines of Mallon book.
Begin writing before doing too much more preliminary research. It will help to know exactly what information is necessary.

IEA Germany Energy Policy Review - 2007

2007-10-15T07:21:00.000-07:00

Saved to Z:// drive.

Commends Germany for getting so far with RE, while suggesting that they move toward market-based mechanisms, citing high price of solar.
Criticizes decision to phase out nuclear by 2022, saying it should be included in mix to achieve CO2 reductions.
Commends plan to end subsidization of coal by 2018
Recommends functional access to electricity transmission line networks for all market participants on equal basis (but isn't it already assured for RE?)
Critcizes plan to provide carbon allowances to new coal and lignite power plants under EU GHG trading scheme
Estimates show that between 2000 and 2012, the feed-in tariff will cost EUR 68 billion in total. 12 "In particular, the subsidies provided to solar photovoltaics are very high in relation to output; they will eat up 20% of the budget but contribute less than 5% of the resulting generation. In comparison, many energy efficiency measures cost multiples less in terms of their reductions in carbon dioxide emissions."
22 Projections for energy usage and price (residential and commercial) 2000-2030.
26-7 "Investment decisions, for example, lie solely in the hands of private energy suppliers. Nevertheless, the government believes that it remains one of its responsibilities to create conditions in which market forces can produce economically desirable outcomes. These conditions include the regulation of natural monopolies (such as gas and electricity grids), the development of market-based instruments for climate change mitigation (such as emissions trading) and the provision of subsidies for certain technologies that are not yet ready for the market (such as renewables)."
28-9 "Germany’s rapid development of its renewables sector has been driven by its renewables promotion policy, a differentiated feed-in tariff. Under the differentiated feed-in tariff scheme, guaranteed rates range from a low of 3.78 eurocents per kWh for biomass to a high of 56.8 eurocents per kWh for photovoltaics, and are, in general, guaranteed for 20 years. The feed-in tariff rates are set so that all technologies are elevated to a level playing field; in (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluroride (SF6) against either a 1990 or a 1995 baseline. terms of profit, an investor should be indifferent between the various renewable energy technologies. Annual degression rates between 1% and 5% are also applied to all technologies (except small hydropower), such that renewables installations going on line in future years receive progressively lower rates in order to account for technological and market learning. Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), the Renewable Energy Act, guides the programme and mandates that the feed-in tariff programme be reviewed every four years in order to ensure that individual technologies are not oversubsidised."
34-5 Ecotax policy and tax rates on motor fuels, heating fuels, and electricity. Discusses tax exemptions, but not clear whether renewable electricity is exempt, as in Belgium. (I guess not.)
36 Intermittancy of wind prevents it from becoming a primary energy supply - evidence in Mallon book to the contrary.
40 - Second full paragraph sums up IEA's perspective on feed-in tariffs. Say tariffs for PVs are very high, and need to be compared to other methods of reducing CO2, such as efficiency measures. R&D funding should be used to reduce cost of technology.
47 - Emissions trading sector covers 55% of country's CO2 emissions. National allocation plan for 2005-07 (NAPI) capped CO2 at 495 MtCO2/yr for those installations covered. NAPII for 2008-2012, as revised by EC, caps it at 425.
49 - Plans for emissions reductions in sectors not covered by emissions trading (households, small business, transport) include Ecological tax reform making energy more expensive and employment cheaper, strengthening public transport, promotion of renewables through EEG, Expansion and modernisation of combined heat and power (CHP) plants through the April 2002 enactment of the law on CHP, and Improved energy efficiency in buildings through streamlined regulations, the introduction of energy certificates, financial assistance for energysaving measures and other measures.
52 - Rightly criticizes government's essential giveaway of emission permits to new plants for 14 years of operation. Also promotes auctioning of emission permits with revenue recycling back to gov't or consumers.
54- IEA seems to question whether goal of doubling energy productivity by 2020 from 1990 levels is possible. Plan includes increasing funding for CO2 Building Rehabilitation Program by EUR 1.5 billion per year (more on this on p. 58); modernizing power plans, promoting distributed gen and CHP plants; step up initiatives for energy conservation in buildings, electricity consumption, and transport. Energy Efficiency Action Plan released in June 2007.
56 - Says total of EUR 1.4 billion per year now available for energy rehabilitation in buildings.
59 - Technical efficiency gains in vehicle gas mileage since 2000 have been cancelled by increased driving.
59-60 - EU voluntary agreement with auto industry to reduce passenger car emissions to 140 g CO2 per km (avg) by 2008
60 - On a daily basis, about 27 million passengers use public transportation in Germany, resulting in about 19 million avoided individual vehicle trips. In 2005, public transport use increased to over 10 billion trips, an increase that can be attributed to easy access to public transport facilities: 86% of all households take less than 10 minutes to reach the closest public transport stop on foot.
66 - Table of renewables supply, 1970-2005
68 - Renewable promotion objectives: According to the EEG, Germany works to promote renewables to facilitate a sustainable development of energy supply, particularly for the sake of protecting the climate, nature and the environment; to reduce the costs of energy supply for the national economy, in part by incorporating long-term external effects; to contribute towards avoiding conflicts over fossil fuels; and to promote the further development of technologies for the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources.
68 - Major RE policies: Germany’s primary tool to promote renewables in the electricity sector is the EEG, enacted in 2000, and amended in 2004. The EEG replaced electricity feed-in legislation (Stromeinspeisungsgesetz, StrEG) enacted in 1990. The other major policies are a programme to provide financial incentives for installations that produce heat from renewables and the promotion of biofuels in transport.
68 - Under original feed-in law, power companies obliged to pay 65-86% of market price to renewables producers. Replaced with guaranteed rate, differentiated by source, location, size of installation, and technology. Idea is that producers should make same profit regardless of technology. The amount paid depends on the year in which the installation is built, with rates guaranteed for a term between 15 and 30 years, depending on technology. Tariffs decline annually to take into account technical development.
69 - Table of Feed-in tariffs by technology for 2006
69 - Under EEG, RE installations guaranteed priority grid access, transmission and distribution. Some detrimental transmission effects (?) occurred within Germany and at Netherlands border due to system not designed properly to handle significant wind integration.

At this point, I stopped reading the entire report, printed out the Renewable Energy section, and highlighted things in the document. Some info on costs for FITs, financial incentives for renewable heat, and biofuel tax exemptions, but not complete. IEA suggests that Germany should switch to renewables obligation (quota) or premium (a la wind PTC in U.S.) system now that RE market is relatively well-developed. Especially dislikes the large tariff attached to PV. Says R&D, rather than market deployment, should be subsidized.

12 October 2007

2007-10-12T14:09:00.001-07:00

Today:

Tried to fill in sources for "job" component of report. Ann was right - not much out there on actual employment figures for different industries. Really, for the purposes of this report, I think it will be adequate to show that the countries that were early leaders in RE (Denmark and Germany), and later adopters that focused on domestic job creation (Spain), have the most companies and create the most jobs.
Heidi's presentation. Lots of good feedback and questions. See notebook.

Two issues that I'd be interested in looking at more. 1) Is RE vs. FF job creation comparing apples to apples, since RE involves building infrastructure, while FF is mostly just extraction of energy source? 2) When costs come down, will employment and wages come down too?

Also, JB convinced it's better to operate on quantity axis for carbon emissions. Most RE literature says price access is better for RE promotion to operate on price axis. Are both right? Differences between carbon (bad) and RE (good) lead to different appropriate policies? Also, need to look at interactions between carbon caps and renewable energy promotion. Any literature on this? JB and MA said Europe's carbon trading system is a disgrace.

Metcalf (1999) article in National Tax Journal on distributional effects of green taxation

Jim Manuel at UMASS - expert on FITs

How does size of public investment in energy sector compare to private investment? JB says private must dominate, so may be most important to get private investment out of FF and into RE.

Justifications for government may not be just (or even primarily) promotion of renewable energy. Other important components: energy security, domestic job creation, quality jobs, regionally-targeted jobs, energy prices don't rise too much for low-income families.

"The Policy Paradox" by Debra Stone. Discusses bundling policy objectives.

May look at transitional assistance programs (TAAs) instituted after Clean Air Act Amendments in 1990. Probably not done well, but lessons.

Mankiw editorial in NYT advocating carbon tax (not quota - but still good for Mankiw).

Next up:

File loose papers
Continue researching for paper - need to avoid getting caught up in details and decide what level of specificity is appropriate for this paper. E.g., finding exact job stats might be too time consuming, instead, show where companies are, where money is flowing.

10 October 2007

2007-10-10T13:59:00.000-07:00

Today:

Long discussion(s) with Heidi about public investment. Had been starting with perspective that public investment in RE was the right way to go, and needed to show why it was good for economy and jobs. Now considering an analysis of whether public investment is best way to promote renewable energy. Talked about what public investment in RE meant - decided on a bid process similar to highway construction. Seems to me that role of economist here is to figure out how to meet GHG reduction targets most equitably and efficiently. May be through government regulation, incentives, direct investment.
Made outline of "Comparative Study Ideas - 10.10.07" with categories that I think report should include. Should outline the goals of renewable energy policy: emissions reduction, job creation, equity and efficiency. Use decided-upon measures to show how the comparison countries are doing in these areas. Discuss policies that have been used to get countries to where they are now. Which ones succeeded? Which ones failed?
Copied the Mallon book and returned to library.
Began looking at http://cait.wri.org/ the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool from WRI to see, based on emissions, which other country/countries should be included in report. Poor countries, obviously, have the lowest emissions per capita. But the countries I'm planning to include in the report don't have the lowest emissions per capita among developed countries. They've simply made bigger strides in new renewables than other countries.
Began a spreadsheet "Comparative Study Data 10 10 07" with data relevant to study. Spent a bit too much time looking at CO2 emission data.
Read a report from CEPR on four economic issues that environmentalists should consider. Fourth one was the cost of carbon emissions. Made the point that no one has done an analysis of how much foregone GDP has resulted from military spending. All the debate on the cost of carbon abatement, given the commitment to military spending, seems silly.

Next time:

Begin with looking for/filling in information on job creation in the new spreadsheet.
If possible, research cost and distribution too.
Stats on energy usage and RE are relatively readily available. Can fill this in last.

Carbon I-O Tables

2007-10-10T06:46:00.000-07:00

Do something like what Heidi is doing, but instead of looking at job multipliers of RE, look at carbon multipliers. (Inspired by the Hillebrand study that suggested that increase in renewable energy jobs would lead to more car buying, which would lead to higher carbon emissions.)

3 October 2007

2007-10-03T13:44:00.000-07:00

Today:

Read through the IEA Renewables Information 2007 report. As expected, not much analysis as to how countries' are in RE situation they are in. Emphasized that worldwide renewable usage is largely biomass in developing countries. Majority of report are 6-page country mini-reports, with data on energy usage over time. Printed off sections for Denmark, Germany, Japan, Spain, U.S. Confirmed that Denmark hasn't been moving or shaking much in last couple years. Data on solar PV seems off/difficult to compare.
Began looking at Energy Policy 2006 publication (set up just like 2005 version that I looked at last week). Printed off some tables on energy R&D for renewables and for the countries listed above.
Skimmed last month of RenewableEnergyAccess.com news headlines. Indicative of who players are, what is being invested in (algae for biofuel!), policy changes that may affect RE industry, etc.
Read Heidi's lit review. Has overview of 6 I-O studies on employment impact of various REEE scenarios. Not much lit out there on job quality in REEE industry. Will probably use Medoff methodology.

Next time:

Write reflection post on anything learned at conference
Go through pertinent sections of Energy Policy 2006
Pick one or two countries besides those listed to analyze. (A less-industrialized country with rapid RE growth - China, India, or Korea? Maybe U.K. for unique experience with tender system.)
Make outline for report. Be sure to look at RE capacity in countries versus jobs in the RE sector. What influenced latter?

IEA Renewables Information 2007

2007-10-03T06:36:00.000-07:00

Accessed via http://puck.sourceoecd.org/vl=2629902/cl=14/nw=1/rpsv/~6673/v2007n21/s1/p1l

11 Calculation of primary energy equivalent: First, primary energy source of a given source. IEA uses heat for geothermal and solar thermal. Electricity for hydro, wind, tidal/wave/ocean, solar PV. Then, physical energy content method. E.g., for geothermal and solar thermal, primary energy equivalent is amount of heat generated. For others, it is amount of electricity generated. Equivalent to assuming 100% efficiency.
31 (3) 12.7% of TPES in world in 2005 was renewables. Large majority is solid biomass (developing countries, esp) - 75.6%. "New" renewables (solar, wind, tide) represent less than 0.1% of TPES and 0.9% of renewables. Non-OECD countries responsible for 77.4% of world renewables supply (biomass). However, OECD responsible for 87.5% of "new" renewables. Hydro provides 89.3% of total renewable electricity.
6 Countries with large share of "new" renewables, not often discussed: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Iceland (geothermal), Mexico (looks like its mostly geothermal), New Zealand,
10 Stats on biggest OECD producers of various forms of RE. Geothermal: US, Mex, It, Jap, Ice, NZ. Solar thermal: US, Japan, Turkey. Solar PV: Germany, Spain, Mex, Neth. Wind: Germ, Spain, Denmark, US. The US is the OECD's largest producer of RE, contributing 31.5% in 2005. US gets 4% of TPES from renewables. US LEADS MANY CATEGORIES. BUT AS SHARE OF OUR TPES, RE is SMALL.
13 Solid biomass makes up 11.5% of US's RE. WHAT KIND OF BIOMASS IS BEING USED? COFIRING?
13 Highest growth rate for wind 1990-2005 in Portugal: 64.7% per year, from 0.001TWH to 1.8 TWh.
p. 83-350 contain country-by-country data tables on total energy supply (GDP and population), net generating capacity of renewable and waste products, gross electricity generation from renewables, heat production from renewables in the transformation sector, energy balances of renewables (doesn't include wind)
LEARN MORE ABOUT GEOTHERMAL. WHY DOESN'T IT GET MUCH ATTENTION?
Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, UK and Greece have had a good deal of wind growth

Printed out country profiles for Denmark, Germany, Japan, Spain, U.S.

Share of renewables in TPES rose in Denmark and Germany between 1990-2005; fell in Japan, Spain, U.S.
TPES/population in U.S. between 1990-2006e was 7.70 to 7.76. Denmark 3.48 to 3.73. Germany 4.49 to 4.24. Japan 3.60 to 4.13. Spain 2.33 to 3.29.
TPES/GDP (in 2000USD) in U.S. between 1990-2006e was 0.27 to 0.20. Denmark 0.14 to 0.11. Germany 0.23 to 0.17. Japan 0.11 to 0.10. Spain 0.21 to 0.20.
Denmark wind capacity has stagnated in recent years: 3117 in 2003, 3125 in 2004, 3129 in 2005. Capacity of solar collectors has also been relatively stagnant.
Germany has had strong and consistent growth in both wind and solar PV over period.
Japan has had strong growth in solar PV over period, but solar collectors surface area and "capacity of solar collectors" shrank from 8878 in 2003 to 4899 in 2005. Country notes don't explain discrepancy. Wind started late, but has grown strongly in recent years.
Spain wind capacity grew strongly to 2004 (2MW in 1990 to 8220 in 2004), but stagnated at 8317 in 2005.
U.S. wind capacity grew steadily from 1911MW in 1990 to 8706MW in 2005. Same trend with solar PV as in Japan. Numbers for net generating capacity rise over period, but both surface area and capacity declined over period.
Appear to be discrepancies in measurement of solar PV electricity generation measurements among countries. Germany has 2000 GWh in 2006, while Japan has 7. Due to distributed vs. centralized?? Germany shows very strong growth by these tables, and Spain's appears quite strong. Japan and U.S., on other hand, appear to have relatively small amount of PV capacity, though U.S. grew from 6 GWh to 16 between 2004-2005.
Shows Denmark's stagnation in wind electric generation 2004-2006. Germany shows strong growth, and jump between 2003 and 2004. Spain also appears to stagnate somewhat 2005-2006. U.S. shows jump between 2005 and 2006.
Curiosities: Industrial waste used for electricity falls of between 2004 and 2005 in Germany. Regulation? Electricity generation from renewable and non-renewable municipal waste appears to be equal for many countries - must give total mun waste used and divide in half. U.S. does more CHP than I would have guessed. Total electricity generation from them has dropped from 62000 GWh in 1990 to around 40000 in 2000-2005.

1 October 2007

2007-10-01T14:00:00.000-07:00

Today:

Took notes on RE policies in EU from Energy Policy 32 (2006) 5-pager and the UK chapter in Mallon's RE policy book
Read the Meyer (2003) paper comparing government incentives/support for renewable energy. Author definitely favors feed-in mechanisms to quota/trade systems, for price security.
Meyer's paper spurred some questions on current state of Danish wind industry especially. Seems that after shift to more conservative gov't in 2001, subsidies for wind were reduced, and domestic installation of wind has fallen off in past few years.
Spent latter part of day trying to figure out exactly what happened in Denmark, without much success. Looked at Danish newspapers that publish in English (Borsen and Copenhagen Times), GWEC website, Google news search. Not much analysis. Also didn't find anything with Google Scholar.

Next up:

Find numbers for capacity added in Denmark for last 10 years or so. Also, look at IEA for policies. Need to find more up-to-date information.
Begin outline of what I could put into a report at this point. Would probably focus on success of feed-in tariffs. Need some more recent information on certificate programs. Discuss features of successful and unsuccessful policies.
Learn more about how big wind manufacturing companies got that way. Where are they located? How did government policies affect their existence/growth?

Why is Denmark installing less wind?

2007-10-01T10:13:00.000-07:00

Meyer (2003) indicated that Denmark was having problems transitioning from feed-in tariff system to tradable certificates.
REN21 shows that Denmark, while still a world leader in wind capacity, installed relatively little in the year 2005. Are conditions for investment so uncertain?

According to the Danish Wind Industry Association (http://www.windpower.org/en/market.htm), "Previously Denmark had a fixed feed-in tariff for wind power, but today all power is sold on the liberalised electricity market. In addition to the market price, which is set by the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool, wind power investors get an environmental premium of 0.10 DDK/kWh (approx. 0.013 EUR/kWh). This development from fixed to market based prices is natural in a liberalised market system. But the Danish Wind Industry Association deems the current premium too low – considering the environmental benefits and the necessary rate of return for the investors in wind power." MAY NOT BE RECENTLY UPDATED.

Having a hard time finding information on current state of RE investment in Denmark.

Copenhagen Post article: "Diminished growth worries wind industry" from 2 August 2007. http://www.cphpost.dk/print.jsp?o_id=102916

Also printed a copy.
Denmark not on Global Wind Energy Council Top 20 list for capacity expansion in 2006.
Rosa Andersen, advisor for Danish Wind Energy Association, said country only installed 6 turbines in 2006.
Article doesn't explain why.

Copenhagen Post article: "Nation not so green after all, says EU" from 14 June 2007. http://www.cphpost.dk/get/102200.html

Rows of windmills and international praise for our use of green energy sources create a picture at odds with the European Union's own version of the country's energy efforts, reported Nyhedsavisen newspaper Monday.
EU data on sustainable energy casts a shadow over Denmark’s image as a global green leader, as the country was at the bottom of the 27-member union list for funding towards sustainable energy sources.
Denmark’s dominant energy symbol, the wind turbine, has suffered under the current government, with the country losing 19 turbines last year - 28 were junked while only nine new ones were raised. The total wind energy produced nationwide was only 11 megawatts in 2006 compared with 600 megawatts in 2000.
ONLY 11 MW IN 2006? JUST NOT RUNNING THE WINDMILLS? WHAT IS GOING ON?

Borsen (Danish Financial daily) article: "The Danish wind turbine market has come to a standstill" from 12 Feb 2007.
http://borsen.dk/nyhed/103814/

Says virtual standstill in wind turbine installation since 2003
Vestas spokesman says investors are going to more profitable places, like Germany
As to why, article just says Danish government has removed incentives for wind turbines

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette article: "Danish island touts clean energy, but reality sets in" from 9 Feb 2006
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06040/652715.stm

Denmark's cutting-edge wind industry, for instance, has flourished on the back of Danish businesses and consumers who pay government-mandated premiums for wind power and other alternative energies.
Such premiums, which are used in most of the EU's 25 member countries to spur alternative-energy development, have made Denmark a leader in wind power. The Nordic country of 5.4 million today gets 20 percent of its electricity from wind, more than any other country in Europe.
Now, though, the Danish government is pulling back on energy incentives, arguing that they are a drag on the economy. The effect won't be felt fully until 2010, when current fixed-price contracts for wind power expire and turbine owners are thrown into the free market.
...Then in 2001, conservatives ousted Denmark's social democrats amid an economic slump. The new government began phasing out the contracts that guaranteed high income for producers of wind energy. It also ended tax credits and subsidies for solar panels and heating systems fueled by wood, straw and other organic "biomass."
"It was a shift in philosophy, a belief that the market will give more cost-effective solutions," says Ture Falbe-Hansen, a spokesman for the Danish Energy Authority.
The result was a collapse of the overall domestic Danish market for wind turbines. Although the market is small and largely saturated, it had been a laboratory for Danish turbine makers like Vestas Wind Systems A/S to hone their technology. Now, Vestas is depending on China, the U.S. and other markets for growth, but it must compete with large companies that also make turbines, including General Electric Co. of the U.S. and Siemens AG of Germany, for business.

At end of day, Monday, Oct 1, still not sure exactly what current situation is in Denmark regarding renewables policies. Seems that shift to more conservative government in 2001 led to cutting back of subsidies, but hard to find information.

Legal Conditions for RE: Comparison of National Legislation

2007-10-01T09:13:00.001-07:00

Niels I. Meyer. "Legal Conditions for RE: A Comparison of National Legislation." Paper for Berlin Conference, May 2003. Paper date: 10 June 2003.

Says short-term goals of market not in line with long-term planning needed for energy infrastructure development. Disagrees with liberalization of electricity market in EU 1996 - says based on ideological principles, not rational evaluation.
Ways wind capacity is ranked: total MW, percent of electricit, capacity per area, capacity per capita, capacity per GNP. Top ranked are Germany, Denmark, Denmark, Denmark, Denmark.
6 Top environmental concerns are noise and visual - but varies from place to place. Denmark cooperative ownership structure renders wind turbines more acceptable.
6 Some issues with variable supply of wind resources. Says most promising solutions involve using excess wind power to produce hydrogen and charging batteries for electric cars.
8 Offshore wind farms just beginning to penetrate Europe. Mostly in Denmark so far. At end of 2002, 279MW of offshore wind in Europe, 233MW of which in DK.
8 Author favors feed-in model. Cost can be passed on to consumers. Possibility for windfall profits can be remedied by a stepped reduction of tariffs.
10 Tender (offer of a bid for contract) system used in UK: winners get fixed price per kWh for length of contract period. Blames local opposition to wind farms and bureaucratic planning procedures for lack of success - less than 1/3 of winning bids realized.
11 Dutch system combines elements of certs and FIM (feed-in model). Old model: green electricity producers got certificates, which could be traded for 6 cent eco-tax exemption, plus got subsidy of 2 cents per kWh. New system has 2.9 cent exemption with higher subsidy, guaranteed for 10 years, but with new subsidy rates determined every year by gov't.
12 Danish system in flux at time of writing. Switching from successful FIM sytem to CTM, but created uncertainty. Present tariff was market price plus premium of 0.1DKK/kWh, not to exceed specified cap. Reduction of premium calculated on hourly basis - not transparent and does not create friendly environment for investment. Also, 450 MW of offshore wind being divided into three farms in international public tender process. HOW DID THIS GO?
13 Sweden has straight up certificate trading model (CTM). In beginning, gov't offered minimum cert price, linearly reduced to 0 by 2008. Maximum price corresponds to penalty for not fulfilling quota, 150% of avg cert price during year, with specified max.
13 Brief discussion of Belgium, Italy (gov't decides price of certs for specified amount of RES-E once a year), Britain.
13 Author dislikes CTM - price fluctuation leads to investment uncertainty.
13 Says electric companies wishing to buy more than quota should get special certificates, so as to not release others from their obligation
14 Table shows 16 European countries and whether they are using FIM, tender, green pricing (voluntary), or CTM
14 Possibility of international trading through Renewable Energy Certificate System between group of utilities in Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Denmark, Germany, Holland, Italy, Norway, Sweden, UK. IS THIS WORKING?
14 Interplay between trading of RE certs and GHG certs? Cites Morthorst 2003 article in Energy Policy on National Targets.
15 Says neither CTM nor FIM are fully market conforming; one sets quantity while other sets price. Further, after wind turbines are installed, they have no flexibility to compete in a market where prices are fluctuating.

NREL head calls for increased RE goal (Feb 2007)

2007-10-01T07:44:00.000-07:00

Current U.S. renewable energy goal too low, says head of national lab. Alvin Powell, Harvard News Office, 7 Feb 2007. http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2007/02.08/09-energy.html

Says government needs to set more ambitious target: biofuels should make up 30 percent of fuel supply by 2030, wind should generate 20% of electricity, and solar should be market competitive by 2015
The National Lab's budget has been stuck at $200 million for the past four years, he said, while its operating budget has actually declined.

RE Policy and Politics, Mallon, 2006 - Country Case Studies

2007-10-01T07:17:00.001-07:00

Gordon Edge (2006). "A Harsh Environment: The Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation and the UK Renewables Industry," in Renewable Energy Policy and Politics, Karl Mallon, ed. London: Earthscan.

The Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFFO): In early 1990s, government sold power generators to private interests, but could not sell nuclear because risks were too high. To force distribution companies to buy higher-priced nuclear power, instituted fossil fuel levy (FFL) to make fossil fuels comparable in price to nuclear.
Eventually (not clear when this happened), NFFO covered only RE, and dropped from 10% to 1%.
Tender system: Government would bid out renewable energy capacity and would buy largest amt possible with available FFL funds. Technology banding guaranteed a given portion of the funds to each of 5 technologies: large wind, small wind, small hydro, landfill gas, biomass.
What this system didn't do well: 1) get capacity installed, due to planning boards blocking construction of the facilities; 2) generate domestic development or manufacturing, since Denmark and Germany had lowest-cost technology; 3) engender confidence in bidders, since no one knew when next round would be or how many contracts would be awarded
NFFO ended in 1998 - the Renewables Obligation came into force in 2002: mandates electricity suppliers to supply set proportion of sales from RE or trade in certificates to meet quota.
Downsides of RO: 1) Technology-blind, so promotes least cost technology - mostly wind right now; 2) potential for market in certificates to crash if more RE is produced than is mandated (supply for certs will outweigh demand and very little would be paid for certificates, apparently haven't had this problem yet); 3) Has attracted foreign manufacturers to set up operations in UK, but not domestic industry
Need coordination in policymaking, including planning, transmission, grid connection
Declared Net Capacity: nameplate capacity multiplied by capacity factor. Wind 0.43; Solar 0.17; Tidal 0.33; Small hydro 0.55; 1 for all others

Randall Swisher and Kevin Porter (2006). "Renewable Policy Lessons from the US: The Need for Consistent and Stable Policies," in Renewable Energy Policy and Politics, Karl Mallon, ed. London: Earthscan.

On policies for wind energy production in U.S. Good, concise description of experiences with PURPA and PTC. Says PTC is not a market maker, but RPSs are. Description of success of TX's RPS. Describes success of wind production under FITs DE and DK, but ascribes success to consistency rather than the policy, per se. Concludes that FITs would not be politically feasible in US, so well-designed RPS way to go. Points to large number of top-10 wind turbine manufacturers in DK, DE, SP (7) as evidence of success of policies there. US only has 1.

Jose Luis Garcia Ortega and Emilio Menendez Perez (2006). "Spanish Renewable Energy: Successes and Untapped Potential," in Renewable Energy Policy and Politics, Karl Mallon, ed. London: Earthscan.

Energy demand outpacing additions of RE; lack of energy efficiency programs. GHG emission permitted to rise by 15% for 2008-12 Kyoto commitment period (above 1990 levels?) reached 40% above by 2003. Emissions from transport sector fastest growing. Highly dependent on oil imports, and nuclear generates 1/3 of electricity.
Objectives for RE are 1) energy independence, 2) jobs, 3) environmental concerns.
Advocates of RE included independent developers that had formed an umbrella association to make their voice heard and environmental groups. In 1992, an agreement formed between a nationwide environmental organization and two major national unions, calling for 750MW target for wind when a gov't energy institute was calling for 175MW (not sure by when). Legislation enacted in 1994, updated in 1998 and 2004, guarantees premium payments for RE.
Spanish states have various initiatives and targets of their own. Galicia has 2300MW wind target, w/ aim of ensuring 70 percent of investment spent within the state. Resulted in 5000 direct and indirect jobs, numerous factories. Twenty percent of Spanish population lives in cities that require solar thermal for hot water in new buildings.
Approxiately 10,000 jobs in Spanish wind industry. Blade manufacture creates 1000 direct jobs in seven factories. 1000 jobs in small O&M enterprises all over country. Solar power employs about 4000 people, with 3/4 in small O&M enterprises. PV module manufacturing requires more than 1000 workers, 15% grads of higher ed. Biomass generation requires equivalent of 5000 full time workers, but most labor complementary to work collecting agricultural waste in rural areas.
Missing 2 pages (224-225) here
Spain now world leader in solar thermal electric - incentives not in place in 1994/1998, but industry growing now.
Gap between R&D institutes and industry - companies seek technology from outside the country. Holds up Solar Energy Institute as example of successful R&D/industry integration. Spanish mkt uses 4% of PV modules made in Europe; 95% of PV module output is exported.

Sven Teske and Volker U. Hoffman (2006). "A History of Support for Solar Photovoltaics in Germany," in Renewable Energy Policy and Politics, Karl Mallon, ed. London: Earthscan.

Spending on energy research between 1974-1995 displays assumption that nuclear power would be energy source of 21st century. Nuclear fusion failed to deliver anything approaching commercial power applications.
Thousand roofs program began 1991 - solar generators with capacities of 1 to 5 KW eligible for 70% investment cost subsidy. Of 4000 applications, 2100 installations in operation at end of 1995. Program was chance to prove concept, raise awareness, facilitate cost reductions, demonstrate what needed to be changed in future (subsidy tied to output rather than capacity).
No successor program when it ended in 1995. Author calls 1995-1999 "the dark ages." Uninterupted subsidy program in North Rhine-Westphalia, and mixture of less steady support in other regions, prevented market from collapsing altogether. Market for PV tripled in two years following 1995 - authors owes this to state supports and campaigns of environmental groups and solar manufacturers.
100,000 solar roofs program began in Nov 1999 w/ no-interest loan for 100% of total investment. Not impetus enough until Renewable Energy Law in 2000 included solar PV in portfolio of RE eligible for FITs. Target was met in June 2003, and no-interests loans not continued.
New Renewable Energy Law came into force in 2004 guarantees prices to users solar PV high enough to attract installation. By this time, no separate state supports.
Main message seems to be importance of stability, and this author believes the FITs is most effective option.